Polling Released On Alaska Politicians

Statistics charts (Graphs, charts, statistics and reporting series)

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Recently, longtime Alaska pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research released five years of polling numbers on U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, Congressman Don Young, former Governor Sean Parnell, and Governor Bill Walker.

Everything from here forward are his charts and his brief comments on each.

These numbers were all measured on the Alaska Survey, a quarterly, 750 sample, statewide multi-client survey, fielded in March, June, September and December of each year. These numbers are for the subset of registered voters in each sample, usually somewhere in the low 600’s, sample-size wise each time.

There are 24 points in this chart… four for each year, 2010-2015. The 35% negative for the 3rd point, for example, was September 2010, right after Murkowski had been beaten in the Republican Primary by Joe Miller. The high point of 62% positive came in the 11th survey, in September of 2012.

It’s remarkable how stable these results are. Murkowski’s negative rating, for example has been in the 27%-31% range in 19 out of 24 surveys. The positive rating has seen a dip over the last eighteen months that has dropped it almost ten points, from a consistent average around 60%, down to 50%. We see a commensurate upward change not in the negative, but in the neutral.

All in all, still pretty strong numbers even today. Nothing, particularly, that a good strong campaign can’t improve. But with Joe Miller just having quit his radio show, political wags are thinking he’s getting ready for another Primary challenge. With Margaret Stock on the “left” and Joe Miller on the “right”… it could be an interesting race!

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Six year’s worth of Governor Sean Parnell ratings courtesy of data from the Alaska Survey. This data runs over 20 surveys starting with the first point in March 2010 and ending December 2014, immediately after he had lost the general election to Governor Walker.

We see a steady decline in this rating from 59-22 in September 2012 down to 38-36 in December 2014. The National Guard story broke publicly in April of 2014, between points 17 and 18. Parnell had announced that Alaska would refuse money for Medicaid expansion in October of 2013, between points 15 and 16.

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Here’s the first seven points of Governor Bill Walker’s chart. Remember, they are quarterly measures… point 1 is from June 2014, then Sept 2014 and Dec 2014, then March, June, September and December of 2015. We’re about to go into the field with the March survey.

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Here’s Congressman Don Young’s positive-negative rating going back six years. Again, there are 24 points on this chart, the first in March 2010 and the last in December 2015… so the first 4 points are 2010, the second four are 2011, going all the way up to the last four being 2015… March, June, September, December for each set. Simples.

Got a bit squeaky there this time last year… negative almost got higher than the positive.

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  • ChopperBob

    Ivan Moore? Hmm. Really? Isn’t this the guy who had Begich winning by 8 points and Ethan beating Don Young by double digits in 2008? Color me skeptical on anything Ivan produces.

    • Casey Reynolds

      Eh, there isn’t a pollster out there someone doesn’t say that about. I’m not saying Moore’s work is the gospel, but its worth looking at any reputable pollster’s work, and he is that.