Sabato: Clinton Will Destroy Trump In Electoral College

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball — “The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.”

“Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take advantage of that!”

“Our new map is one that will evolve, maybe substantially, after the conventions. Remember that independent and/or third-party candidates could change the calculus. Nonetheless, here is our extra-early, ridiculously premature projection of the Electoral College map in a possible Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup. Yielding completely to boldness, or recklessness, we eliminated Toss-ups, and leaned all states to one or the other nominee. Each state’s electoral history, developing demographics, and current polling data guided our choices.”

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  • akbatgirly

    But is it realistic to give EVERY SINGLE toss-up state to the Democrats? This almost seems like a ploy by the Republicans to get people fired up to “Dump Trump”.

    I guess it’s a possibility though, as this appears to be exactly how the map turned out for Obama vs. McCain, with the exception of Indiana.

    I would like to see this done for Clinton vs. Cruz, Sanders vs. Trump, and Sanders vs. Cruz as well.

    • Casey Reynolds

      That isn’t a bad point. Here is a more diverse array of projections http://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/.

      As you can see, none of them are good for Trump and the map most favorable to him (Charlie Cook’s) has Wisconsin and Penn as toss-up, which I think is wishful thinking.