Election Update: Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Showing No Signs Of Fading

;

FiveThirtyEight — Hillary Clinton’s polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model – which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention – gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. Here’s polls-only:

polls_only_0807

Clinton’s chances were buoyed by strong numbers in both national and state polling released this weekend:

  • A new ABC News/Washington Post national poll published on Sunday showed Clinton up 8 percentage points among registered voters. Clinton’s lead jumped 4 points compared to the previous ABC News/Washington survey, conducted before the conventions.
  • A Morning Consult poll, also published Sunday, also found Clinton up 8 points among registered voters. Clinton was up 5 percentage points in the same poll last weekend, conducted after both conventions. That is, Clinton’s post-convention surge has continued in Morning Consult’s polling.
  • Two national tracking polls which have generally shown good numbers for Trump also found Clinton building or holding onto her post-convention bounce. Clinton led by 1 percentage point in the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times survey, and by 6 points in the CVOTER International poll – both matching her largest leads from those pollsters.
  • The only poll showing any real sign of decay in Clinton’s lead is the Ipsos tracking poll, which had Clinton up 2 percentage points as of Friday, down a few points from earlier in the week. For now, it is an outlier, and most polls have Clinton’s bounce holding or expanding.

To read the full article click here.

Be the first to comment on "Election Update: Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Showing No Signs Of Fading"

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*