The Upshot, a New York Times section devoted to data-driven reporting on politics, policy, and economics, gives Democrats a 57% chance of winning the Senate and Sen. Lisa Murkowski a greater than 99% chance of winning re-election.
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that the Democrats are slight favorites to win the Senate, based on the latest state and national polls.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model calculates win probabilities for each Senate race. In addition to 153 state polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling.