Exclusive new polling data in Alaska shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a lead over Hillary Clinton, Sen. Lisa Murkowski with a hefty lead over everyone, and Gov. Bill Walker and Rep. Don Young maintaining solid numbers in the face of voter malaise.
The exclusive polling data is from Moore Information (Not affiliated with Ivan Moore’s Alaska Survey Research) out of Portland, OR. Moore surveyed 500 likely voters between August 27-29. The survey included both landline and cell phones and has a 4% margin of error.
The Presidential Race
Moore Information found Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by ten points (39% to 29%), but both are very unpopular in Alaska:
“The two Presidential candidates are both viewed very negatively by voters in the state but Hillary Clinton’s image (27% favorable/65% unfavorable) is considerably more negative than Donald Trump’s (38% favorable/51% unfavorable). This plays out on the Presidential ballot with Trump leading Clinton 39% to 29% in the general election. Independent candidate Gary Johnson is getting 10% of the vote and Green party candidate Jill Stein receives 4% while 17% of voters say “don’t know” or “none.”
The Mood Of Alaska Voters
That dissatisfaction doesn’t stop at the top of the ticket. It appears Alaskans are unhappy with how things are going in general:
Moore further breaks down voter feelings this way:
“By far the largest concern for voters in Alaska is the state budget. More than one-in-five voters (21%) cite this as the most important problem facing the state. This is followed by the economy (11%), unemployment/jobs (11%), oil decline/crisis (5%), cost of living/lack of living wages (4%), ineffective government (4%) and wasteful spending (3%). Economic issues both from a government standpoint and from a personal perspective are most concerning to the Alaskan voter today.“
Those numbers help explain why seven members of the legislative majorities were defeated in the August 16 primary election. However. those feelings don’t appear to have had a materially negative impact on how likely voters view Gov. Bill Walker.
According to Moore, the Governor is still viewed favorably by 49% of likely voters while only 32% view him negatively. He even comes close to even among Republicans (36%-44%). That is pretty good given the Alaska Republican Party and Republican caucus leaders in the legislature treat the Governor as their political adversary.
The U.S. Senate Race
One public official who appears to be bucking the national and statewide voter funk is Sen. Lisa Murkowski. She maintains a strong 68% approval rating compared to only a 25% disapproval rating.
Murkowski also holds a commanding 42-point lead in her re-election bid with no challenger showing support of over 12%.
Rep. Don Young
Moore Information’s numbers on Rep. Don Young are a bit cryptic:
“Looking at other figures in Alaska, Don Young is the next highest rated public figure in the state with 52% holding a favorable opinion of him and 36% holding an unfavorable one. Young holds net positive ratings with all partisan groups except Democrats and Liberals who view him unfavorably. Nonetheless he holds solid net positives with all age groups and high double-digit net positive scores in all regions of Alaska outside of Anchorage.”
Young’s positive number looks good at 52%, but because his unfavorable rating is high at 36%, Young actually has a lower +/- (+16%) than Gov. Walker (+17). Those are both pretty good, but a 36% negative rating is getting on the edge of vulnerable territory for an incumbent.
Also, the language says Young has good numbers everywhere but Anchorage? Anchorage is where almost half the population of the state lives. We don’t have the full crosstabs of the survey, but the odd nature of how that was phrased and the lack of head-to-head numbers of Young vs. his challenger Steve Lindbeck leaves open the possibility that Young could have a real race on his hands.
One Final Note
A survey of this sort almost certainly contained approval/disapproval numbers on Alaska’s only other stand-alone statewide elected official, Sen. Dan Sullivan. Given that Young and Walker’s numbers are so close and Moore states Young is the second highest rated public figure in the state, we can logically conclude that the freshman Senator’s numbers came in somewhere south of Walker’s.
You can read the full polling memo here.