According to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) memo shared with The Midnight Sun Sunday night, a poll conducted in Alaska just over two weeks ago shows Rep. Don Young’s Democratic challenger Steve Lindbeck within two points of the longtime Alaska congressman.
The DCCC memo says that among “likely voters” in Alaska Young gets 39% of the vote and Lindbeck comes in just behind with 37%. That puts Lindbeck only two points down and well within the poll’s 5.25% margin of error entering the final three weeks of the campaign.
Maybe most notable about the survey is it includes Libertarian Jim McDermott in the model. He scored 14% of the vote. If that number is correct, McDermott is almost certainly pulling a heavy chunk of votes away from Young, allowing Lindbeck to be with striking distance of victory without breaking 40% in the polls.
That is a substantial path to victory for a Democrat in a state where they have a hard time winning one-on-one statewide races against Republicans.
One warning sign Democrats should ponder before getting too excited about the poll is that it was taken during what appears to have been the high water mark for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, October 16-18. Since then Clinton’s campaign has suffered substantial setbacks around the country. If that regression in support has down-ballot effects here in Alaska, then Lindbeck might not be as well situated as this poll suggests.