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Good night everyone!
Unrelated to Alaska, but the Mexican peso has lost more value (22 per dollar from a week ago at 19) and the National Bank ofexivo announced that a Trump win would cause it to devaluate higher. Talk about scare tactics.
People: thank you so very much for allowing me to participate in this outstanding event tonight! Regardless of the outcome of specific races, we go to bed in the greatest county on earth and the best state in the country.
Oh, and Eric, I can tell you that the Ballot Measure 1 team is surprised by the results. We thought we’d win, but we didn’t think it would be so… resounding.
With Grenn and Parish in the fold and all Dem/Independent seats defended, it seems a bipartisan coalition is likely.
Anyone surprised with the ballot measure results?
Finally some numbers from District 24 with Chuck Kopp ahead by a healthy percentage.
With Pruitt/Millett/Giessel rebounding and likely to retain their seats, the Republicans are now looking at a bad night instead of a terrible one.
With only 2 precincts left to report, Giessel’s lead has now grown to 300+ votes. We have 1 precinct to report from HD-37 and 1 from HD-38. The deficit is likley too large to overcome for the Beltrami camp.
Has there ever been a 3-time loser for US Senate from Alaska? A record feat in 6 years. Too bad Joe; just like the Chicago Cubs: there’s always……..oh wait!
Based on the precinct tapes we posted earlier, Giessel is pretty likley to hold onto her lead in Senate N. 4/6 remaining precincts are in HD-38 where she won in every case we reviewed except for 1.
Grenn is the winner. I think it’s also pretty safe to call the HD-27 race for Pruitt. It will be hard for Crawford to overcome a 116 vote deficit with only 2 precincts remaining.
Mat-Su Republicans are celebrating their local wins and many celebrating Trump’s win. Will the local ARP districts unite after many leaders resigned to support Joe Miller?
Is it me or is it really slow to get local counts this year in comparison?
Millett is storming back in HD-25. She is down 19 votes with 3 precincts still outstanding.
Senate N will come down to where the outstanding votes are coming from. HD-28 has 4 precincts yet to report and HD-27 has 2. That’s good news for Giessel, as HD-28 is the more conservative half of the district.
Giessel has just retaken the lead in Senate N. She is up 39 votes with 6 precincts left to count.
One last burst of cheering and celebration here from Beltrami and co.
Nationwide, Democrats have lost 910 legislative seats since President Obama took office, according to the Washington Post — calculated, I think, before tonight. Congrats to the new GOP Governor of Vermont, Phil Scott, who I served with as Lieutenant Governor and seemed to be the friendliest and lowest key guy in the bunch.
Was going to head to Beartooth, but people are finally starting to crack emotionally here at Williwa. Time to take some people home.
As Trump takes the White House, what should Alaskans seek? ANWR? King Cove road resolution? OCS leasing? Power-sharing and transfer of federal lands? Getting the right things built (ports) in and (icebreakers) for the Arctic. All of these issues have a chance now.
In HD 29, Rep Chenault had a goofy write-in opponent Pedro Fernandez from Seward that collected 8%……”instead of jail, we should make them read books….” I’m not making that up!
“Philosophy Phil” AKA Daniel Lynch (HD 30 N) is with us now: “the people have spoken; but did they know what they were saying and in what language they were speaking?”
Duncan Fields is surprisingly close to Louise Stutes in HD 32. Add Brent Watkins (D) numbers to his and he wins in a walk.
It’s also worth pointing out, given how close the race is, that Dustin Darden has almost 10% of the votes in HD 22.
Of all the surprising local results tonight, the Parish upset of Munoz might be the biggest.
Beltrami has taken the lead in Senate District N
Rep. Munoz has lost to Justin Parish. She is down 4 points with 6/7 precincts reported.
First-time candidate from HD 30 Daniel Lynch is headed to the Back Door Bar to join me. He’s a really good dude with ideas; hopefully we can have him on the TDH Show as a regular. He won’t win this race but I hope we haven’t heard the last of him
Sorry if someone already said this, but I’ve been unable to login for a bit: this is a very strange night and election for progressives and moderates in Alaska. On the one hand, the national results are devastating. On the other, it seems like the Dems and Independents are likely to pickup several seats.
As I said at the very beginning of our coverage, I think the anti-incumbency lens is the best way to understand what happened. Not anti-incumbency writ-large, perhaps, but anti-incumbency in the sense that people were extremely frustrated with the current leadership in Juneau.
And yes, Casey– JHH, myself, and many more on our team will be celebrating the passage of Ballot Measure 1. But given the broader context, it’s hard to not feel like it’s a bit of a pyrrhic victory. It will be a very tempered celebration.
The Grenn/Vazquez race just tightened up quite a bit. It makes sense – the early result that had Grenn up 10 points was based on early vote. Vazquez sent out a ton of pretty effective mail in the last week, so the actual election day votes will be a little better for her. Still think Grenn wins but this will be close-ish
That’s a great looking group, Casey!
Great turnout, Erick!
Via text from (Rep-Elect) Knopp: “….more excited now than nervous. Been nervous all day…….right now feeling pretty relieved”
There were about 250+ people at the Fat Ptarmigan Pizza, but now mostly candidates and volunteers. Lora Reinbold stopped by on her way to visit other candidate events.
Unsurprisingly, Claman is now up 11 points.
Beltrami is closing on Giessel:
|SENATE DISTRICT N|
|Number of Precincts||17|
|Giessel, Catherine A||REP||1809||50.63%|
Got some non-tape, unofficial results that say JKT and Ortiz both performing well.
The TDH Show’s support of Knopp (R, HD 30) was tempered by his refusal to rule out joining a coalition of D’s and ‘goofball’ R’s…… Wouldn’t it be sumthin’ if he were the deciding factor….?
Feel pretty comfortable saying that Munoz and Vazquez will lose. We’ll see what happens with Claman and Millet.
Actual results in Grenn race are validating early results so far:
Results are in for AK:
We haven’t compared the Giessel/Beltrami results below to 2012 yet, but the eye-ball test does not look ideal for Beltrami.
Knopp with huge lead for HD 30 (Kenai Soldotna)
Back to the POTUS race: PA with 20 EV and 97% in Trump up 53k votes; with AK’s 3 that finishes this (from foxnews)
Let the refreshing begin!
Alaska results will start trickling in soon. Here’s the link:
At the Dem event now, and I have to say that Mark was right: surprisingly festive.
At Little Italy, Team Millett and family’s pizza just arrived! Spirits are high!
Early results are just that – early. Both candidates ran diligent campaigns, and I think this one will be close
The one race I feel confident calling based on the tape is Grenn/Vazquez. Grenn will win. Vazquez’ path to victory was extremely narrow to begin with, and the early results have all broken against her.
We’re enjoying a big family dinner in District 25! Election night is best spent surrounded by the family and pizza!
Ballot Measure 1: 697 to 333.
I’m going to stop posting BM1 stuff. Unless something crazy happens, it’s passing by a significant margin.
Aaron has been working hard in that district! Great effort from a young man running!
Glad to be with you virtually, Casey. On an Alaska Airlines jet headed home from California. Looking forward to working with Mark Begich to open ANWR in the first 100 days of the next Administration, if we can keep it from becoming a national monument in the meantime!
Tape from Chena, largest precinct:
And more tape…
My Presidential math says: AZ determines the winner. Best facebook comment tonight so far:
America is in labor now. In a few hours we should know…if its a boy or girl!!And then we can all go thru postpartum depression together!
For perspective, Munoz beat her D challenger in that precinct by a margin of 564-271 in 2014. Not a great sign for Munoz.
More precinct tapes to report…
Not sure that I’ve seen a national election that allows Alaska to be a player!
Precinct 580 (conservative district):
The latest from 538:
I can’t answer that, Taylor, they’re all looking at a screen of this conversation…
Results from Fireweed #2:
At the Grenn event. Finally got our first precinct tape, from 670:
Any guesses on what the map would look like right now for Sanders/Biden/any other human with a pulse?
Chris Birch has joined the other candidates. Former ATP Chair, Peter Goldberg, stopped by to wish the best to the candidates.
Fat Ptarmigan is the place to be if you are a Republican. About a dozen candidates are here. Chuck Kopp, Natasha VonImhoff, Jennifer Johnson, Marilyn Stewart and many more. The place is packed.
“Where is my mind?” by the Pixies is blaring in the Bear Tooth theater right now. Apt music choice.
Most voters who feel sick about the prospect of a Trump presidency (me) will feel better knowing that California has legalized marijuana for adult recreational use (me). The problem is, if the Trump result holds, it is likely he will appoint an AG less friendly to legal states than Holder/Lynch, so implementation (and the status of mariuana-friendly laws in Alaska, Colorado, etc) could be in jeopardy.
Average turnout % in the last three Alaska presidential elections is roughly 64% (~60% in 2012; ~66% in 2008; ~66% in 2004). This feels more like 2008/2004 than 2012, so we should probably exceed that average. Voter intensity across the country is firmly behind Trump, so the turnout boost in Alaska is most likely to help Republican candidates although it could vary pretty widely on a district-by-district basis.
At my first election watch party. Hosted by a young, professional Republican. Mixed political leanings in the group… but everyone seems stunned.
Kenai Prescient 2 (my home!) reported voters waiting at 7:am and a steady stream ALL day!!! A good turnout is good for democracy
Hello! Trump is clearly overperforming in states across the country and it would be safe to assume the same thing will happen in Alaska. It will be interesting to see how this impacts down ballot House/Senate races.
HD 30 had the most candidates this year, 8 before the Primary. Perhaps due to the retirement of Rep. Kurt Olson (R, Soldotna) and now it’s still a 4-way race with Knopp (R), Thornton (D), Meyers (AK Const) and Daniel Lynch (Non). The district is generally R but 4 candidates makes it interesting……
Hello from Kenai and House District 30!
I have to admit, I’ve pretty religiously focused on local politics this year. But as I head to my first election watch party, I’m having trouble thinking about anything but the Presidential.
Casey, I have trouble seeing Bryce not prevailing. But anything is possible.
Everyone focused on national election at the moment, and rightly so. But FWIW, I had a knowledgeable Dem insider predict that every swing incumbent would prevail, save two: Senator Giessel and Rep. Vasquez.
Joined my last sign-waving of the season at the corner of Northern Lights and Minnesota. I’m here with Harriet Drummond’s campaign, but Matt Claman and Mike Gordon also well-represented.
Got my first “scoop”! From an insider familiar with Fairbanks:
“The thing operatives on both sides are talking about in the Hopkins/Coghill race is that a high number of Republicans who asked for mail ballots haven’t turned them in. A Coghill aide told me they focused their weekend phone banking on getting these people to mail their ballots in.”
Being a fake journalist is fun.
Slate.com has a new feature at the top of their page called the “Turnout Tracker,” which purports to estimate turnout in the Presidential election in several swing states based on early vote data, polling, and observed turnouts in real time.
Sorry Casey, I edited/updated that post to ask a different question while you were posting your response. I will endeavor to not do so tonight when the action really gets going :)
Casey (or anyone else now online), we’re seeing reports like this from all over Alaska indicating strong early vote turnout:
116 Unalaskans voted early. The number is usually closer to 40. "It's way beyond anything we've ever seen," says city clerk.
— KUCB (@KUCBNews) November 8, 2016
Do we think this indicates stronger overall turnout, or shifting voter preferences for how they cast their ballots?
New blog, who dis?