If you have information you’d like our live bloggers to know about, you can send it to us at via email at Mnsunak@gmail.com, tweet us @midnight_sun_ak or message us on Facebook.
Good night everyone!
Unrelated to Alaska, but the Mexican peso has lost more value (22 per dollar from a week ago at 19) and the National Bank ofexivo announced that a Trump win would cause it to devaluate higher. Talk about scare tactics.
People: thank you so very much for allowing me to participate in this outstanding event tonight! Regardless of the outcome of specific races, we go to bed in the greatest county on earth and the best state in the country.
Here is our final house majority chart. Looks like Dems get to be in power for awhile.
creynolds I agree with you
Looks like Millett has pulled out the win. With all precincts reporting she is up by 45 votes. It will be a long few days of counting absentees and question ballots, but she should win.
mbegich good night
I what a night. Thanks for having this forum. Have a great rest of the night good night.
Now looks like Dems/Musk Ox will have at least a 22-18 for a majority in house and GOP will have at least a 15-5 majority in the senate. Then there is our Independent Governor Bill Walker. How is that for divided government and checks and balances?
Oh, and Eric, I can tell you that the Ballot Measure 1 team is surprised by the results. We thought we’d win, but we didn’t think it would be so… resounding.
With Grenn and Parish in the fold and all Dem/Independent seats defended, it seems a bipartisan coalition is likely.
Anyone surprised with the ballot measure results?
Claman wins move to d I agree bad from terrible is what they should be thankful for
Finally some numbers from District 24 with Chuck Kopp ahead by a healthy percentage.
With Pruitt/Millett/Giessel rebounding and likely to retain their seats, the Republicans are now looking at a bad night instead of a terrible one.
tbickford and that’s why even 1 vote makes a difference in Alaska
kcrey I actually think they will for the most part. The FEC complaints burned a lot of bridges with the leadership and those who took a break, but I suspect that at the end of the day most will be welcomed back.
With only 2 precincts left to report, Giessel’s lead has now grown to 300+ votes. We have 1 precinct to report from HD-37 and 1 from HD-38. The deficit is likley too large to overcome for the Beltrami camp.
Has there ever been a 3-time loser for US Senate from Alaska? A record feat in 6 years. Too bad Joe; just like the Chicago Cubs: there’s always……..oh wait!
Based on the precinct tapes we posted earlier, Giessel is pretty likley to hold onto her lead in Senate N. 4/6 remaining precincts are in HD-38 where she won in every case we reviewed except for 1.
Millett now down only 19 votes
Grenn is the winner. I think it’s also pretty safe to call the HD-27 race for Pruitt. It will be hard for Crawford to overcome a 116 vote deficit with only 2 precincts remaining.
ecordero You think any of them will be allowed to resume the posts they resigned? If the ARP could logistically pull that off it would be a great way to reach out to those conservative activists and bring the party back together.
I repeat myself grenn wins
Grenn now up 149 votes with two precincts left to report. looking more and more likely he will pull off a close win. The most interesting thing there is the 10% Dustin Darden got. I think that was more a protest vote against the incumbent/establishment candidate Vazquez. I’m not sold on the idea that those votes would have gone to the more lefty supported Grenn if Darden wasn’t in the race.
Mat-Su Republicans are celebrating their local wins and many celebrating Trump’s win. Will the local ARP districts unite after many leaders resigned to support Joe Miller?
I had both of those races listed with a “Lean” rating, so it’s hard for me to call either a big upset. I would go with the Munoz race, though. She had a rough time with the letters she wrote, but that scandal seemed to have subsided and it looked like she was back on track.
Bickford. I agree on both counts
Is it me or is it really slow to get local counts this year in comparison?
mbegich Munoz the biggest upset in a race that has been decided. But if Higgins holds on, that’s more of a surprise to me.
Upset of the night Higgins? Maybe?
Millett is storming back in HD-25. She is down 19 votes with 3 precincts still outstanding.
Senate N will come down to where the outstanding votes are coming from. HD-28 has 4 precincts yet to report and HD-27 has 2. That’s good news for Giessel, as HD-28 is the more conservative half of the district.
Giessel has just retaken the lead in Senate N. She is up 39 votes with 6 precincts left to count.
One last burst of cheering and celebration here from Beltrami and co.
Nationwide, Democrats have lost 910 legislative seats since President Obama took office, according to the Washington Post — calculated, I think, before tonight. Congrats to the new GOP Governor of Vermont, Phil Scott, who I served with as Lieutenant Governor and seemed to be the friendliest and lowest key guy in the bunch.
mbegich Grenn is only up 144 votes and Claman is only up 233. I’m not ready to call them yet.
Was going to head to Beartooth, but people are finally starting to crack emotionally here at Williwa. Time to take some people home.
New house majority race update. We moved Pruitt out prematurely earlier and have now called a few more races
I think Claman and Grenn can be moved from up for grabs to D
Ya, both are tight. Looks like it is gunna be a long couple of days for all four campaigns.
Vince and Harry tracking together
Crawford now up on Pruitt by 2 freakin votes. Crazy.
Claman will also win
And I think we can officially call Ortiz’ race…it looks over with 10 of 10 precincts reporting.
Beltrami now up JUST 5 VOTES!!!!!!!!
Trump just gave speech. Calm and respectful
As Trump takes the White House, what should Alaskans seek? ANWR? King Cove road resolution? OCS leasing? Power-sharing and transfer of federal lands? Getting the right things built (ports) in and (icebreakers) for the Arctic. All of these issues have a chance now.
Casey. Your upfor grabs should move four over to the Dems
Not solving budget challenge.
Worth noting all judges are being retained easily. So much for Alaska Family Council’s efforts to get Bolger and Maassen tossed.
mbegich What exactly did they pay a price for?
Updated house majority breakdown:
It looks officially over for Cathy Munoz. 7 out of 7 precincts reporting and she is down 184 votes.
Incumbents in charge paid a price
Now that we see some results, does anyone have any key takeaways or see any themes developing in the results?
Ortiz will win
In HD 29, Rep Chenault had a goofy write-in opponent Pedro Fernandez from Seward that collected 8%……”instead of jail, we should make them read books….” I’m not making that up!
Dan Ortiz (I) is solidifying a lead in Ketchikan. That would be a big win for Dems. GOP put a lot into taking Ortiz out.
“Philosophy Phil” AKA Daniel Lynch (HD 30 N) is with us now: “the people have spoken; but did they know what they were saying and in what language they were speaking?”
Higgins is my dark horse tonight
Duncan Fields is surprisingly close to Louise Stutes in HD 32. Add Brent Watkins (D) numbers to his and he wins in a walk.
Casey. I agree just saw the new numbers. Parish looks like he will win
It’s also worth pointing out, given how close the race is, that Dustin Darden has almost 10% of the votes in HD 22.
Of all the surprising local results tonight, the Parish upset of Munoz might be the biggest.
Pruitt now up only 23 votes over Harry Crawford
I think we can go ahead and call the Munoz-Parish race for Parish (D). Big pick-up for Dems. They now get a solid caucus member.
Beltrami has taken the lead in Senate District N
Rep. Munoz has lost to Justin Parish. She is down 4 points with 6/7 precincts reported.
First-time candidate from HD 30 Daniel Lynch is headed to the Back Door Bar to join me. He’s a really good dude with ideas; hopefully we can have him on the TDH Show as a regular. He won’t win this race but I hope we haven’t heard the last of him
Vince Beltrami is marching triumphantly into Bear Tooth with his supporters. I think he is still down a few points, though.
Sorry if someone already said this, but I’ve been unable to login for a bit: this is a very strange night and election for progressives and moderates in Alaska. On the one hand, the national results are devastating. On the other, it seems like the Dems and Independents are likely to pickup several seats.
As I said at the very beginning of our coverage, I think the anti-incumbency lens is the best way to understand what happened. Not anti-incumbency writ-large, perhaps, but anti-incumbency in the sense that people were extremely frustrated with the current leadership in Juneau.
And yes, Casey– JHH, myself, and many more on our team will be celebrating the passage of Ballot Measure 1. But given the broader context, it’s hard to not feel like it’s a bit of a pyrrhic victory. It will be a very tempered celebration.
The Grenn/Vazquez race just tightened up quite a bit. It makes sense – the early result that had Grenn up 10 points was based on early vote. Vazquez sent out a ton of pretty effective mail in the last week, so the actual election day votes will be a little better for her. Still think Grenn wins but this will be close-ish
That’s a great looking group, Casey!
The scene at Fat Ptarmigan
Prop 1 is going to pass easily. John-Henry Heckendorn and Forrest Dunbar can breathe once again.
Tonight as the national election closes out. The message is clear, people want Washington to get things done and make the place work for Americans. I also think the News Reporters can’t believe it happened. People are hoping that the Trump presidency will fix the problems we face as a country
Margaret Stock is getting more votes than Ray Metcalfe in the race of Democrat self-hatred.
Lisa and Don being held under 50 percent
Joe Miller doing a very respectable 28%. Taylor is right, he is a great closer.
Grenn up with zero precincts reporting? I don’t feel like that is a safe lead.
Great turnout, Erick!
Via text from (Rep-Elect) Knopp: “….more excited now than nervous. Been nervous all day…….right now feeling pretty relieved”
There were about 250+ people at the Fat Ptarmigan Pizza, but now mostly candidates and volunteers. Lora Reinbold stopped by on her way to visit other candidate events.
Unsurprisingly, Claman is now up 11 points.
Beltrami is closing on Giessel:
|SENATE DISTRICT N|
|Number of Precincts||17|
|Giessel, Catherine A||REP||1809||50.63%|
This how the race for house majority looks right now
Got some non-tape, unofficial results that say JKT and Ortiz both performing well.
House looks like changes will happen. Senate not so much Pete Kelly Senate President
The TDH Show’s support of Knopp (R, HD 30) was tempered by his refusal to rule out joining a coalition of D’s and ‘goofball’ R’s…… Wouldn’t it be sumthin’ if he were the deciding factor….?
Feel pretty comfortable saying that Munoz and Vazquez will lose. We’ll see what happens with Claman and Millet.
creynolds of those 4, Claman is the most likely to rebound.
If these very early results hold, Dems will get the majority in the house. Easily.
Incumbents in the senate are doing just fine. A number of state house incumbents are in trouble (Claman, Munoz, MiIllet, Vazquez,).
Pat Higgins do well early
Munos down early
Forrest McDonald only down 5 points
Actual results in Grenn race are validating early results so far:
First official results coming in.
Results are in for AK:
We haven’t compared the Giessel/Beltrami results below to 2012 yet, but the eye-ball test does not look ideal for Beltrami.
Not looking good for Vince Beltrami right now
I call Drummond will win
Knopp with huge lead for HD 30 (Kenai Soldotna)
We have a ton of Beltrami-Giessel results….coming momentarily
Back to the POTUS race: PA with 20 EV and 97% in Trump up 53k votes; with AK’s 3 that finishes this (from foxnews)
Let the refreshing begin!
Alaska results will start trickling in soon. Here’s the link:
At the Dem event now, and I have to say that Mark was right: surprisingly festive.
At Little Italy, Team Millett and family’s pizza just arrived! Spirits are high!
creynolds it’s a very bad sign for Munoz. She won that precinct in 2014 by a margin of 564-271. It was her best precinct, and now she is winning it by 44 votes.
District 34 – Precinct 450
creynolds Pruitt won that district by a margin of 283-175 in 2014. He’s winning this year by a margin of 281-225. Pruitt has still won the precinct, but it’s trending in the wrong direction for him.
House District 18-precinct 475
Early results in Pruitt vs Crawford and Geissel vs Beltrami races in District 27:
Early results are just that – early. Both candidates ran diligent campaigns, and I think this one will be close
The one race I feel confident calling based on the tape is Grenn/Vazquez. Grenn will win. Vazquez’ path to victory was extremely narrow to begin with, and the early results have all broken against her.
Mead I’m with you. My staff said you wanted to connect. Lets connect when you have time
We’re enjoying a big family dinner in District 25! Election night is best spent surrounded by the family and pizza!
Ballot Measure 1: 697 to 333.
I’m going to stop posting BM1 stuff. Unless something crazy happens, it’s passing by a significant margin.
Aaron has been working hard in that district! Great effort from a young man running!
Glad to be with you virtually, Casey. On an Alaska Airlines jet headed home from California. Looking forward to working with Mark Begich to open ANWR in the first 100 days of the next Administration, if we can keep it from becoming a national monument in the meantime!
Tape from Chena, largest precinct:
What a night at Dem event a lot of drinking and having fun
I agree with u Taylor. Liz is in trouble
And more tape…
My Presidential math says: AZ determines the winner. Best facebook comment tonight so far:
America is in labor now. In a few hours we should know…if its a boy or girl!!And then we can all go thru postpartum depression together!
For perspective, Munoz beat her D challenger in that precinct by a margin of 564-271 in 2014. Not a great sign for Munoz.
More precinct tapes to report…
Not sure that I’ve seen a national election that allows Alaska to be a player!
Precinct 580 (conservative district):
Taylor is ANWR going to be open on the first 100 days?
The latest from 538:
Here is the scene at Bear Tooth
I guess ANWR to be open in the first 100 days?
I can’t answer that, Taylor, they’re all looking at a screen of this conversation…
Results from Fireweed #2:
forrest-dunbar Vazquez won 670 by a margin of 212-159 in 2014. Good sign for Grenn.
forrest-dunbar is that ahead or behind expectations for Grenn? We are receiving tapes from other precincts and will be posting shortly. Early look at results before official numbers are made available in an hour or so.
At the Grenn event. Finally got our first precinct tape, from 670:
Any guesses on what the map would look like right now for Sanders/Biden/any other human with a pulse?
The scene at the Campbell Lake precinct. There was a problem this AM so they are having to hand feed votes from earlier today/ Could take some time to get results from that precinct.
Chris Birch has joined the other candidates. Former ATP Chair, Peter Goldberg, stopped by to wish the best to the candidates.
creynolds I don’t see any real chance…… Knopp has played it vary safe after winning the Primary….
The polls are now closed in Alaska!!!!
dbannock You are in Kenai. Any indication Thornton might knock of Knopp?
Fat Ptarmigan is the place to be if you are a Republican. About a dozen candidates are here. Chuck Kopp, Natasha VonImhoff, Jennifer Johnson, Marilyn Stewart and many more. The place is packed.
mbegich I remember 2003-2007. Not holding my breath
Taylor really. I think there will be other issues. I can assume once all the republicans control all branches of govt the insurance will go down, deficit will shrink and taxes go down ?
And here are our state senate race ratings:
“Where is my mind?” by the Pixies is blaring in the Bear Tooth theater right now. Apt music choice.
Most voters who feel sick about the prospect of a Trump presidency (me) will feel better knowing that California has legalized marijuana for adult recreational use (me). The problem is, if the Trump result holds, it is likely he will appoint an AG less friendly to legal states than Holder/Lynch, so implementation (and the status of mariuana-friendly laws in Alaska, Colorado, etc) could be in jeopardy.
Here is a way of tracking state house races according to how we think GOP and Dem lead groups are vying for putting together a majority organization:
Average turnout % in the last three Alaska presidential elections is roughly 64% (~60% in 2012; ~66% in 2008; ~66% in 2004). This feels more like 2008/2004 than 2012, so we should probably exceed that average. Voter intensity across the country is firmly behind Trump, so the turnout boost in Alaska is most likely to help Republican candidates although it could vary pretty widely on a district-by-district basis.
If you are like a lot of people you probably need a stiff drink right now. We can’t offer that, but how about a change of subject. Here are our state house race ratings for Alaska. They should be something better to ponder for now.
At my first election watch party. Hosted by a young, professional Republican. Mixed political leanings in the group… but everyone seems stunned.
Kenai Prescient 2 (my home!) reported voters waiting at 7:am and a steady stream ALL day!!! A good turnout is good for democracy
Hello! Trump is clearly overperforming in states across the country and it would be safe to assume the same thing will happen in Alaska. It will be interesting to see how this impacts down ballot House/Senate races.
HD 30 had the most candidates this year, 8 before the Primary. Perhaps due to the retirement of Rep. Kurt Olson (R, Soldotna) and now it’s still a 4-way race with Knopp (R), Thornton (D), Meyers (AK Const) and Daniel Lynch (Non). The district is generally R but 4 candidates makes it interesting……
Forrest we are all connect local and national. It will be a close race for president at the end of the day. I have said this from the beginning and now we are seeing it
Hello from Kenai and House District 30!
I have to admit, I’ve pretty religiously focused on local politics this year. But as I head to my first election watch party, I’m having trouble thinking about anything but the Presidential.
I still think it’s anti incumbent feeling. The voters want a responsive government. Even if you do well as an elected official in office people want results faster then at times can be delivered. So the end result is kick out who ever is in office. So if you are elected get ready for a rough ride
What I’ll be watching for tonight: will Alaska’s primary election anti-incumbent across the board narrative continue or will Alaska voters revert to the national R vs D voting pattern.
National race long night. Let’s hope alaska goes faster, but if we have a tradition it’s late night
Casey, I have trouble seeing Bryce not prevailing. But anything is possible.
Forrest hearing same thing. But the anti incumbent feeling is strong
I had conversations with a Republican insider and a Democrat insider today who both told me Rep. Bryce Edgmon is very nervous about the support his Republican challenger William Weatherby is getting from small communities is his district. If there is an anti-incumbent wave tonight, it is conceivable Edgmon gets washed out with it.
Everyone focused on national election at the moment, and rightly so. But FWIW, I had a knowledgeable Dem insider predict that every swing incumbent would prevail, save two: Senator Giessel and Rep. Vasquez.
Headed to dinner with family and a new state senator. Senator tom begich
mbegich Do you think Alaska native turnout will mirror latino turnout in the lower 48 or are the dynamics completely different?
It could. But more to come
It looks like rural white vote has dramatically spiked for Trump and latino vote has done the same for Clinton. Since Alaska doesn’t have many latinos, one has to wonder if the national trend of Trump outperforming polls is going to be a prequel of what we can expect in Alaska. That would be a good sign for the Alaska GOP.
Here are the final early vote numbers for Alaska. Early vote way up, absentee by mail voting down about 10%.
Here are the 2008 and 2012 numbers for comparision:
Florida down to the wire. Virginia northern part comes late and she does better. But again down to wire. N Carolina a problem for Hillary
Virginia, NC, and Florida not looking great for Hillary right now.
Pennsylvania McGinty-Dem winning big. Toomey incumbent 4th pickup for Dems. No Dem turnovers. Means at this point 50 / 50 senate
New Hampshire Hassan Dem winning Ayotte Republican not. 3rd turnover for Dems in US Senate
Missouri. Kander the dem beating incumbent Blunt by big percent 56/36 percent. 2nd pickup for Dems in us senate
Looks like Duckworth beats Kirk in Illinois. Pickup in Senate for Dems
Saw some sign wavers in E Anchorage working the last votes. Alaska numbers in the next few hours
Joined my last sign-waving of the season at the corner of Northern Lights and Minnesota. I’m here with Harriet Drummond’s campaign, but Matt Claman and Mike Gordon also well-represented.
Got my first “scoop”! From an insider familiar with Fairbanks:
“The thing operatives on both sides are talking about in the Hopkins/Coghill race is that a high number of Republicans who asked for mail ballots haven’t turned them in. A Coghill aide told me they focused their weekend phone banking on getting these people to mail their ballots in.”
Being a fake journalist is fun.
Here are the election night events and parties we have seen. If we have missed any, let us know and we’ll add yours to the list.
-We will be at the big event at Bear Tooth. Good food, good beer, and politics. What could go wrong?
-The Alaska Republican Party will be at the Anchorage Hilton:
-Jason Grenn’s Campaign will be at the Boardroom in Downtown Anchorage starting at 6:30.
-Chuck Kopp, Natasha Von Imhof, and Jennifer Johnston, Chris Birch, and Mike Gordon will be at the Fat Ptarmigan.
-Donald Trump’s campaign will be at Flattop Pizza and Pool (600 W. Sixth Ave starting at 5.
-Joe Miller’s campaign is having an event at Davis Constructors at 6591 A St, Suite 300 starting at 7.
-Radio station KBYR will be broadcasting from the Anchorage Hilton.
-Pollster Ivan Moore is having his own party at the Historic Anchorage Hotel
Looking to bet on the election? The political futures website PredictIt.com has some good odds on election results in Alaska.
Do you think Hillary really can win Alaska’s electoral votes? Well, you can get an 8-1 payoff if she does. Do you think Trump is going to win Alaska and win it big? You could get better than a 6-1 payoff if either candidate wins Alaska by more than 3 points..
What we are hearing:
Slate.com has a new feature at the top of their page called the “Turnout Tracker,” which purports to estimate turnout in the Presidential election in several swing states based on early vote data, polling, and observed turnouts in real time.
Returns about to come in in Indiana….IT BEGINS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry Casey, I edited/updated that post to ask a different question while you were posting your response. I will endeavor to not do so tonight when the action really gets going :)
Forrest Dunbar – Depends on the district. I think in left-leaning districts it is good for Ds and in right-leaning districts it is good for Rs. Overall, since Alaska is a red state, I’d say it isn’t good for Hillary.
Other than that I’d say it is too early to tell. We don’t know who is coming out to vote. We are hearing in Michigan middle-class whites are coming out in strong numbers and in Florida we are hearing the same about Latinos. Do you have any thoughts on your own questions, Forrest?
Casey (or anyone else now online), we’re seeing reports like this from all over Alaska indicating strong early vote turnout:
116 Unalaskans voted early. The number is usually closer to 40. "It's way beyond anything we've ever seen," says city clerk.
— KUCB (@KUCBNews) November 8, 2016
Do we think this indicates stronger overall turnout, or shifting voter preferences for how they cast their ballots?
And here are the house races we think are in play.
New blog, who dis?
Here is the two state senate races we are watching tonight.
Here is what the Baxter Elementary precinct looked like when the polls opened. There were at least 50 people waiting in line and plenty more filtering in as voting began. This is one of the biggest precincts in Lance Pruitt and Cathy Giessel’s district.
Lisa Murkowski, Mike Gordon, Harriet Drummond, and Matt Claman had their people all gathered around Benson and Minnesota. It is odd that none of the walked a few hundred feet down the street and have Northern Lights and Minnesota all to themselves. Maybe they just wanted to be really, really close to the legislature’s second Anchorage LIO.
Don Young’s people had another strong showing on the corner of Benson and New Seward
Trump and Mike Gordon had Northern Lights and New Seward all to themselves. The Trump guys yelled at me “Trumpers love Mike Gordon.”
Democrats owned Boniface and Northern Lights.
They also had a great set up with donuts, coffee, and music.
Election day in Alaska means one thing: SIGN WAVING!!!!
Remember the good ole days when your email junk fold we filled with erectile dysfunction medication ads and offers from Nigerian princes?
Recent polls say either Clinton or Trump can win Alaska, but 538’s model doesn’t show it quite so close.
Nothing starts off election day like fresh polling numbers. Here is where Gravis Marketing puts the presidential race in Alaska:
Welcome to our live election coverage. Stick with us throughout the day for the latest developments in Alaska’s elections.