Election Live – 2016 General Election


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Erick Cordero November 9, 20161:10 am

Good night everyone!

Erick Cordero November 9, 201612:27 am

Unrelated to Alaska, but the Mexican peso has lost more value (22 per dollar from a week ago at 19) and the National Bank ofexivo announced that a Trump win would cause it to devaluate higher. Talk about scare tactics.

Duane Bannock November 9, 201612:26 am

People: thank you so very much for allowing me to participate in this outstanding event tonight! Regardless of the outcome of specific races, we go to bed in the greatest county on earth and the best state in the country.

Good night & God Bless America!
Casey Reynolds November 9, 201612:18 am

Here is our final house majority chart. Looks like Dems get to be in power for awhile.

Erick Cordero November 9, 201612:15 am

creynolds I agree with you

Casey Reynolds November 9, 201612:14 am

Looks like Millett has pulled out the win. With all precincts reporting she is up by 45 votes. It will be a long few days of counting absentees and question ballots, but she should win.

Erick Cordero November 9, 201612:12 am

mbegich good night

Mark Begich November 9, 201612:09 am

I what a night. Thanks for having this forum. Have a great rest of the night good night.

Casey Reynolds November 9, 201612:08 am

Now looks like Dems/Musk Ox will have at least a 22-18 for a majority in house and GOP will have at least a 15-5 majority in the senate. Then there is our Independent Governor Bill Walker. How is that for divided government and checks and balances?

Forrest Dunbar November 9, 201612:06 am

Oh, and Eric, I can tell you that the Ballot Measure 1 team is surprised by the results. We thought we’d win, but we didn’t think it would be so… resounding.

Forrest Dunbar November 9, 201612:05 am

With Grenn and Parish in the fold and all Dem/Independent seats defended, it seems a bipartisan coalition is likely.

But that will happen tomorrow, if it happens at all. As for me, I’ve off to spend a little time with people I care about, and then go to bed. Goodnight everyone!
Erick Cordero November 9, 201612:04 am

Anyone surprised with the ballot measure results?

Mark Begich November 9, 201612:02 am

Claman wins move to d I agree bad from terrible is what they should be thankful for

Erick Cordero November 9, 201612:02 am

Finally some numbers from District 24 with Chuck Kopp ahead by a healthy percentage.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:59 pm

With Pruitt/Millett/Giessel rebounding and likely to retain their seats, the Republicans are now looking at a bad night instead of a terrible one.

Erick Cordero November 8, 201611:59 pm

tbickford and that’s why even 1 vote makes a difference in Alaska

Erick Cordero November 8, 201611:57 pm

kcrey I actually think they will for the most part. The FEC complaints burned a lot of bridges with the leadership and those who took a break, but I suspect that at the end of the day most will be welcomed back.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:56 pm

With only 2 precincts left to report, Giessel’s lead has now grown to 300+ votes. We have 1 precinct to report from HD-37 and 1 from HD-38. The deficit is likley too large to overcome for the Beltrami camp.

Duane Bannock November 8, 201611:55 pm

Has there ever been a 3-time loser for US Senate from Alaska? A record feat in 6 years. Too bad Joe; just like the Chicago Cubs: there’s always……..oh wait!

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:54 pm

Based on the precinct tapes we posted earlier, Giessel is pretty likley to hold onto her lead in Senate N. 4/6 remaining precincts are in HD-38 where she won in every case we reviewed except for 1.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:53 pm

Millett now down only 19 votes

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:52 pm

Grenn is the winner. I think it’s also pretty safe to call the HD-27 race for Pruitt. It will be hard for Crawford to overcome a 116 vote deficit with only 2 precincts remaining.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:51 pm

ecordero You think any of them will be allowed to resume the posts they resigned? If the ARP could logistically pull that off it would be a great way to reach out to those conservative activists and bring the party back together.

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:50 pm

I repeat myself grenn wins

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:50 pm

Grenn now up 149 votes with two precincts left to report. looking more and more likely he will pull off a close win. The most interesting thing there is the 10% Dustin Darden got. I think that was more a protest vote against the incumbent/establishment candidate Vazquez. I’m not sold on the idea that those votes would have gone to the more lefty supported Grenn if Darden wasn’t in the race.

Erick Cordero November 8, 201611:49 pm

Mat-Su Republicans are celebrating their local wins and many celebrating Trump’s win. Will the local ARP districts unite after many leaders resigned to support Joe Miller?

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:44 pm

I had both of those races listed with a “Lean” rating, so it’s hard for me to call either a big upset. I would go with the Munoz race, though. She had a rough time with the letters she wrote, but that scandal seemed to have subsided and it looked like she was back on track.

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:44 pm

Bickford. I agree on both counts

Erick Cordero November 8, 201611:44 pm

Is it me or is it really slow to get local counts this year in comparison?

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:41 pm

mbegich Munoz the biggest upset in a race that has been decided. But if Higgins holds on, that’s more of a surprise to me.

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:40 pm

Upset of the night Higgins? Maybe?

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:39 pm

Millett is storming back in HD-25. She is down 19 votes with 3 precincts still outstanding.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:38 pm

Senate N will come down to where the outstanding votes are coming from. HD-28 has 4 precincts yet to report and HD-27 has 2. That’s good news for Giessel, as HD-28 is the more conservative half of the district.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201611:36 pm

Giessel has just retaken the lead in Senate N. She is up 39 votes with 6 precincts left to count.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201611:32 pm

One last burst of cheering and celebration here from Beltrami and co.

Mead Treadwell November 8, 201611:32 pm

Nationwide, Democrats have lost 910 legislative seats since President Obama took office, according to the Washington Post — calculated, I think, before tonight. Congrats to the new GOP Governor of Vermont, Phil Scott, who I served with as Lieutenant Governor and seemed to be the friendliest and lowest key guy in the bunch.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:32 pm

mbegich Grenn is only up 144 votes and Claman is only up 233. I’m not ready to call them yet.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201611:31 pm

Was going to head to Beartooth, but people are finally starting to crack emotionally here at Williwa. Time to take some people home.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:21 pm

New house majority race update. We moved Pruitt out prematurely earlier and have now called a few more races

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:20 pm

I think Claman and Grenn can be moved from up for grabs to D

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:18 pm

Ya, both are tight. Looks like it is gunna be a long couple of days for all four campaigns.

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:16 pm

Vince and Harry tracking together

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:15 pm

Crawford now up on Pruitt by 2 freakin votes. Crazy.

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:12 pm

Claman will also win

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:12 pm

And I think we can officially call Ortiz’ race…it looks over with 10 of 10 precincts reporting.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:11 pm

Beltrami now up JUST 5 VOTES!!!!!!!!

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:10 pm

Trump just gave speech. Calm and respectful

Mead Treadwell November 8, 201611:09 pm

As Trump takes the White House, what should Alaskans seek? ANWR? King Cove road resolution? OCS leasing? Power-sharing and transfer of federal lands? Getting the right things built (ports) in and (icebreakers) for the Arctic. All of these issues have a chance now.

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:09 pm

Casey. Your upfor grabs should move four over to the Dems

Mark Begich November 8, 201611:08 pm

Not solving budget challenge.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:07 pm

Worth noting all judges are being retained easily. So much for Alaska Family Council’s efforts to get Bolger and Maassen tossed.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:05 pm

mbegich What exactly did they pay a price for?

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201611:02 pm

Updated house majority breakdown:

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:54 pm

It looks officially over for Cathy Munoz. 7 out of 7 precincts reporting and she is down 184 votes.

Mark Begich November 8, 201610:53 pm

Incumbents in charge paid a price

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:48 pm

Now that we see some results, does anyone have any key takeaways or see any themes developing in the results?

Mark Begich November 8, 201610:38 pm

Ortiz will win

Duane Bannock November 8, 201610:37 pm

In HD 29, Rep Chenault had a goofy write-in opponent Pedro Fernandez from Seward that collected 8%……”instead of jail, we should make them read books….” I’m not making that up!

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:35 pm

Dan Ortiz (I) is solidifying a lead in Ketchikan. That would be a big win for Dems. GOP put a lot into taking Ortiz out.

Duane Bannock November 8, 201610:34 pm

“Philosophy Phil” AKA Daniel Lynch (HD 30 N) is with us now: “the people have spoken; but did they know what they were saying and in what language they were speaking?”

Mark Begich November 8, 201610:33 pm

Higgins is my dark horse tonight

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201610:32 pm

Duncan Fields is surprisingly close to Louise Stutes in HD 32. Add Brent Watkins (D) numbers to his and he wins in a walk.

Mark Begich November 8, 201610:30 pm

Casey. I agree just saw the new numbers. Parish looks like he will win

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201610:29 pm

It’s also worth pointing out, given how close the race is, that Dustin Darden has almost 10% of the votes in HD 22.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201610:28 pm

Of all the surprising local results tonight, the Parish upset of Munoz might be the biggest.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:28 pm

Pruitt now up only 23 votes over Harry Crawford

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:27 pm

I think we can go ahead and call the Munoz-Parish race for Parish (D). Big pick-up for Dems. They now get a solid caucus member.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201610:27 pm

Beltrami has taken the lead in Senate District N

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201610:24 pm

Rep. Munoz has lost to Justin Parish. She is down 4 points with 6/7 precincts reported.

Duane Bannock November 8, 201610:15 pm

First-time candidate from HD 30 Daniel Lynch is headed to the Back Door Bar to join me. He’s a really good dude with ideas; hopefully we can have him on the TDH Show as a regular. He won’t win this race but I hope we haven’t heard the last of him

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:14 pm

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:12 pm

Vince Beltrami is marching triumphantly into Bear Tooth with his supporters. I think he is still down a few points, though.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201610:07 pm

Sorry if someone already said this, but I’ve been unable to login for a bit: this is a very strange night and election for progressives and moderates in Alaska. On the one hand, the national results are devastating. On the other, it seems like the Dems and Independents are likely to pickup several seats.

As I said at the very beginning of our coverage, I think the anti-incumbency lens is the best way to understand what happened. Not anti-incumbency writ-large, perhaps, but anti-incumbency in the sense that people were extremely frustrated with the current leadership in Juneau.

And yes, Casey– JHH, myself, and many more on our team will be celebrating the passage of Ballot Measure 1. But given the broader context, it’s hard to not feel like it’s a bit of a pyrrhic victory. It will be a very tempered celebration.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 201610:07 pm

The Grenn/Vazquez race just tightened up quite a bit. It makes sense – the early result that had Grenn up 10 points was based on early vote. Vazquez sent out a ton of pretty effective mail in the last week, so the actual election day votes will be a little better for her. Still think Grenn wins but this will be close-ish

Charisse Millett November 8, 201610:06 pm

Charisse Millett November 8, 201610:05 pm

That’s a great looking group, Casey!

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:05 pm

The scene at Fat Ptarmigan

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201610:04 pm

Prop 1 is going to pass easily. John-Henry Heckendorn and Forrest Dunbar can breathe once again.

Mark Begich November 8, 201610:02 pm

Tonight as the national election closes out. The message is clear, people want Washington to get things done and make the place work for Americans. I also think the News Reporters can’t believe it happened. People are hoping that the Trump presidency will fix the problems we face as a country

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:55 pm

Margaret Stock is getting more votes than Ray Metcalfe in the race of Democrat self-hatred.

Mark Begich November 8, 20169:53 pm

Lisa and Don being held under 50 percent

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:51 pm

Joe Miller doing a very respectable 28%. Taylor is right, he is a great closer.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:49 pm

Grenn up with zero precincts reporting? I don’t feel like that is a safe lead.

Charisse Millett November 8, 20169:48 pm

Great turnout, Erick!

Duane Bannock November 8, 20169:47 pm

Via text from (Rep-Elect) Knopp: “….more excited now than nervous. Been nervous all day…….right now feeling pretty relieved”

Erick Cordero November 8, 20169:47 pm

There were about 250+ people at the Fat Ptarmigan Pizza, but now mostly candidates and volunteers. Lora Reinbold stopped by on her way to visit other candidate events.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:45 pm

Unsurprisingly, Claman is now up 11 points.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:42 pm

Beltrami is closing on Giessel:

Number of Precincts 17
Precincts Reporting 2 11.8%
Times Counted 3758/29555 12.7%
Total Votes 3573

Beltrami, Vince NA 1746 48.87%
Giessel, Catherine A REP 1809 50.63%
Write-in Votes 18 0.50%
Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:42 pm

This how the race for house majority looks right now

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20169:42 pm

Got some non-tape, unofficial results that say JKT and Ortiz both performing well.

Mark Begich November 8, 20169:40 pm

House looks like changes will happen. Senate not so much Pete Kelly Senate President

Duane Bannock November 8, 20169:40 pm

The TDH Show’s support of Knopp (R, HD 30) was tempered by his refusal to rule out joining a coalition of D’s and ‘goofball’ R’s…… Wouldn’t it be sumthin’ if he were the deciding factor….?

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:36 pm

Feel pretty comfortable saying that Munoz and Vazquez will lose. We’ll see what happens with Claman and Millet.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:34 pm

creynolds of those 4, Claman is the most likely to rebound.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:32 pm

If these very early results hold, Dems will get the majority in the house. Easily.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:32 pm

Incumbents in the senate are doing just fine. A number of state house incumbents are in trouble (Claman, Munoz, MiIllet, Vazquez,).

Mark Begich November 8, 20169:28 pm

Pat Higgins do well early

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:28 pm

Munos down early

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:27 pm

Forrest McDonald only down 5 points

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:26 pm

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:26 pm

Actual results in Grenn race are validating early results so far:

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:24 pm

First official results coming in.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:24 pm

Results are in for AK:

17% of precincts reporting
Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:23 pm

We haven’t compared the Giessel/Beltrami results below to 2012 yet, but the eye-ball test does not look ideal for Beltrami.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:23 pm

Not looking good for Vince Beltrami right now

Mark Begich November 8, 20169:21 pm

I call Drummond will win

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:21 pm


Beltrami 426
Giessel 359
Beltrami 207
Giessel 297
Beltrami 512
Giessel 625
Beltrami 543
Giessel 518
Beltrami 368
Giessel 451
Beltrami 346
Giessel 294
Duane Bannock November 8, 20169:21 pm

Knopp with huge lead for HD 30 (Kenai Soldotna)

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:19 pm

We have a ton of Beltrami-Giessel results….coming momentarily

Duane Bannock November 8, 20169:18 pm

Back to the POTUS race: PA with 20 EV and 97% in Trump up 53k votes; with AK’s 3 that finishes this (from foxnews)

Charisse Millett November 8, 20169:14 pm

Let the refreshing begin!

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:13 pm

Alaska results will start trickling in soon. Here’s the link:

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20169:11 pm

At the Dem event now, and I have to say that Mark was right: surprisingly festive.

Charisse Millett November 8, 20169:10 pm

At Little Italy, Team Millett and family’s pizza just arrived! Spirits are high!

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:09 pm

creynolds it’s a very bad sign for Munoz. She won that precinct in 2014 by a margin of 564-271. It was her best precinct, and now she is winning it by 44 votes.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:04 pm

District 34 – Precinct 450

Parish: 340
Munoz: 384
That is close. Closer than Munoz has seen in awhile.
Taylor Bickford November 8, 20169:02 pm

creynolds Pruitt won that district by a margin of 283-175 in 2014. He’s winning this year by a margin of 281-225. Pruitt has still won the precinct, but it’s trending in the wrong direction for him.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:01 pm

House District 18-precinct 475

Drummond 134
Gordon 141
Gordon has to start winning some of these precincts by bigger margins to have a chance.
Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:59 pm

Early results in Pruitt vs Crawford and Geissel vs Beltrami races in District 27:

Precinct 915
Pruitt 281
Crawford 225
Giessel 274
Beltrami 203
Charisse Millett November 8, 20168:58 pm

Early results are just that – early. Both candidates ran diligent campaigns, and I think this one will be close

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:56 pm

The one race I feel confident calling based on the tape is Grenn/Vazquez. Grenn will win. Vazquez’ path to victory was extremely narrow to begin with, and the early results have all broken against her.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:51 pm
House District 18, Precinct 480:
Drummond (D) 396
Gordon (R) 274

Drummond beat her R opponent by a margin of 424-156 in that precinct in 2014. Trending positive for Gordon, we’ll see if it will be enough.
Mark Begich November 8, 20168:50 pm

Mead I’m with you. My staff said you wanted to connect. Lets connect when you have time

Charisse Millett November 8, 20168:49 pm

We’re enjoying a big family dinner in District 25! Election night is best spent surrounded by the family and pizza!

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:47 pm

More tape…

House District 21, Precinct 600:
Claman (D) 512
Stewart (R) 339
Claman beat his R opponent by a margin of 510-387 in that precinct in 2014. Very similar result.
Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20168:47 pm

University West:

Wool: 534
Lojewski: 484

Ballot Measure 1: 697 to 333.

I’m going to stop posting BM1 stuff. Unless something crazy happens, it’s passing by a significant margin.

Charisse Millett November 8, 20168:45 pm

Aaron has been working hard in that district! Great effort from a young man running!

Mead Treadwell November 8, 20168:44 pm

Glad to be with you virtually, Casey. On an Alaska Airlines jet headed home from California. Looking forward to working with Mark Begich to open ANWR in the first 100 days of the next Administration, if we can keep it from becoming a national monument in the meantime!

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20168:43 pm

Tape from Chena, largest precinct:

Wool: 1071
Lojewski: 858
Ballot Measure 1 crushing, 1350 to 595.
Mark Begich November 8, 20168:41 pm

What a night at Dem event a lot of drinking and having fun

Mark Begich November 8, 20168:40 pm

I agree with u Taylor. Liz is in trouble

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:39 pm

And more tape…

House District 22, Precinct 670:
Grenn (I) 181
Vazquez (R) 174
Vazquez beat her D opponent by a margin of 212-159 in that precinct in 2014. Based on a few unfavorable precinct tapes, it is looking pretty unlikely that Vazquez will win that race.
Duane Bannock November 8, 20168:37 pm

My Presidential math says: AZ determines the winner. Best facebook comment tonight so far:

America is in labor now. In a few hours we should know…if its a boy or girl!!And then we can all go thru postpartum depression together!

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:36 pm

For perspective, Munoz beat her D challenger in that precinct by a margin of 564-271 in 2014. Not a great sign for Munoz.

Charisse Millett November 8, 20168:35 pm

Go Cathy!

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:34 pm

More precinct tapes to report…

House District 34, Precinct 450:
Parish (D) 340
Munoz (R) 384
Charisse Millett November 8, 20168:32 pm

Not sure that I’ve seen a national election that allows Alaska to be a player!

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20168:32 pm

Precinct 580 (conservative district):

Lojewski: 80
Wool: 40
Ballot Measure 1 winning 76 to 48.
Mark Begich November 8, 20168:31 pm

Taylor is ANWR going to be open on the first 100 days?

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:31 pm

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:26 pm

The latest from 538:

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:24 pm

Here is the scene at Bear Tooth

Mark Begich November 8, 20168:23 pm

I guess ANWR to be open in the first 100 days?

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20168:22 pm

I can’t answer that, Taylor, they’re all looking at a screen of this conversation…

(Hey Penny!)
Here’s another tape, from Adam Wool:
Precinct 588
Ballot Measure 1 up 136 to 100
No Wool numbers for some reason. Just the Ballot Measure.
Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:21 pm

Results from Fireweed #2:

Drummond 152
Gordon 115
Drummond beat Isley (her R opponent) by a margin of 193-84 in 2014.
Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:20 pm

forrest-dunbar Vazquez won 670 by a margin of 212-159 in 2014. Good sign for Grenn.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:18 pm

forrest-dunbar is that ahead or behind expectations for Grenn? We are receiving tapes from other precincts and will be posting shortly. Early look at results before official numbers are made available in an hour or so.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20168:16 pm

At the Grenn event. Finally got our first precinct tape, from 670:

Grenn is up 181 to 174.
Ballot Measure 1 passing 221 to 159.
One precinct. In one district.
Taylor Bickford November 8, 20168:11 pm

Any guesses on what the map would look like right now for Sanders/Biden/any other human with a pulse?

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:11 pm

The scene at the Campbell Lake precinct. There was a problem this AM so they are having to hand feed votes from earlier today/ Could take some time to get results from that precinct.

Erick Cordero November 8, 20168:07 pm

Chris Birch has joined the other candidates. Former ATP Chair, Peter Goldberg, stopped by to wish the best to the candidates.

Duane Bannock November 8, 20168:06 pm

creynolds I don’t see any real chance…… Knopp has played it vary safe after winning the Primary….

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:03 pm

The polls are now closed in Alaska!!!!

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20167:57 pm

dbannock You are in Kenai. Any indication Thornton might knock of Knopp?

Erick Cordero November 8, 20167:56 pm

Fat Ptarmigan is the place to be if you are a Republican. About a dozen candidates are here. Chuck Kopp, Natasha VonImhoff, Jennifer Johnson, Marilyn Stewart and many more. The place is packed.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20167:56 pm

mbegich I remember 2003-2007. Not holding my breath

Mark Begich November 8, 20167:51 pm

Taylor really. I think there will be other issues. I can assume once all the republicans control all branches of govt the insurance will go down, deficit will shrink and taxes go down ?

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20167:50 pm

And here are our state senate race ratings:

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20167:48 pm

“Where is my mind?” by the Pixies is blaring in the Bear Tooth theater right now. Apt music choice.

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20167:46 pm

Most voters who feel sick about the prospect of a Trump presidency (me) will feel better knowing that California has legalized marijuana for adult recreational use (me). The problem is, if the Trump result holds, it is likely he will appoint an AG less friendly to legal states than Holder/Lynch, so implementation (and the status of mariuana-friendly laws in Alaska, Colorado, etc) could be in jeopardy.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20167:46 pm

Here is a way of tracking state house races according to how we think GOP and Dem lead groups are vying for putting together a majority organization:

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20167:36 pm

Average turnout % in the last three Alaska presidential elections is roughly 64% (~60% in 2012; ~66% in 2008; ~66% in 2004). This feels more like 2008/2004 than 2012, so we should probably exceed that average. Voter intensity across the country is firmly behind Trump, so the turnout boost in Alaska is most likely to help Republican candidates although it could vary pretty widely on a district-by-district basis.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20167:31 pm

If you are like a lot of people you probably need a stiff drink right now. We can’t offer that, but how about a change of subject. Here are our state house race ratings for Alaska. They should be something better to ponder for now.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20167:30 pm

At my first election watch party. Hosted by a young, professional Republican. Mixed political leanings in the group… but everyone seems stunned.

Duane Bannock November 8, 20167:28 pm

Kenai Prescient 2 (my home!) reported voters waiting at 7:am and a steady stream ALL day!!! A good turnout is good for democracy

Taylor Bickford November 8, 20167:22 pm

Hello! Trump is clearly overperforming in states across the country and it would be safe to assume the same thing will happen in Alaska. It will be interesting to see how this impacts down ballot House/Senate races.

Duane Bannock November 8, 20167:11 pm

HD 30 had the most candidates this year, 8 before the Primary. Perhaps due to the retirement of Rep. Kurt Olson (R, Soldotna) and now it’s still a 4-way race with Knopp (R), Thornton (D), Meyers (AK Const) and Daniel Lynch (Non). The district is generally R but 4 candidates makes it interesting……

Mark Begich November 8, 20167:10 pm

Forrest we are all connect local and national. It will be a close race for president at the end of the day. I have said this from the beginning and now we are seeing it

Duane Bannock November 8, 20167:04 pm

Hello from Kenai and House District 30!

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20167:04 pm

I have to admit, I’ve pretty religiously focused on local politics this year. But as I head to my first election watch party, I’m having trouble thinking about anything but the Presidential.

Mark Begich November 8, 20166:44 pm

I still think it’s anti incumbent feeling. The voters want a responsive government. Even if you do well as an elected official in office people want results faster then at times can be delivered. So the end result is kick out who ever is in office. So if you are elected get ready for a rough ride

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20166:29 pm

What I’ll be watching for tonight: will Alaska’s primary election anti-incumbent across the board narrative continue or will Alaska voters revert to the national R vs D voting pattern.

Mark Begich November 8, 20166:22 pm

National race long night. Let’s hope alaska goes faster, but if we have a tradition it’s late night

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20166:16 pm

Casey, I have trouble seeing Bryce not prevailing. But anything is possible.

I’d say if this Trump spike in rural white voters does translate to Alaska, that would make Rep. Dan Ortiz’s seat very hard to defend. Don’t want to speculate before polls have closed, but comforted by the fact that VERY few people who aren’t already locked into voting will be reading this insider-y blog.
Mark Begich November 8, 20166:04 pm

Forrest hearing same thing. But the anti incumbent feeling is strong

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20166:00 pm

I had conversations with a Republican insider and a Democrat insider today who both told me Rep. Bryce Edgmon is very nervous about the support his Republican challenger William Weatherby is getting from small communities is his district. If there is an anti-incumbent wave tonight, it is conceivable Edgmon gets washed out with it.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20165:56 pm

Everyone focused on national election at the moment, and rightly so. But FWIW, I had a knowledgeable Dem insider predict that every swing incumbent would prevail, save two: Senator Giessel and Rep. Vasquez.

If that’s the case, there’s likely to be a bipartisan coalition in the State House, but not the State Senate (w/o Luke Hopkins prevailing).
Mark Begich November 8, 20165:55 pm

Headed to dinner with family and a new state senator. Senator tom begich

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:54 pm


Casey Reynolds November 8, 20165:46 pm

mbegich Do you think Alaska native turnout will mirror latino turnout in the lower 48 or are the dynamics completely different?

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:44 pm

It could. But more to come

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20165:36 pm

It looks like rural white vote has dramatically spiked for Trump and latino vote has done the same for Clinton. Since Alaska doesn’t have many latinos, one has to wonder if the national trend of Trump outperforming polls is going to be a prequel of what we can expect in Alaska. That would be a good sign for the Alaska GOP.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20165:29 pm

Here are the final early vote numbers for Alaska. Early vote way up, absentee by mail voting down about 10%.

Here are the 2008 and 2012 numbers for comparision:

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:24 pm

Florida down to the wire. Virginia northern part comes late and she does better. But again down to wire. N Carolina a problem for Hillary

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20165:21 pm

Virginia, NC, and Florida not looking great for Hillary right now.

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:12 pm

Pennsylvania McGinty-Dem winning big. Toomey incumbent 4th pickup for Dems. No Dem turnovers. Means at this point 50 / 50 senate

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:09 pm

New Hampshire Hassan Dem winning Ayotte Republican not. 3rd turnover for Dems in US Senate

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:06 pm

Missouri. Kander the dem beating incumbent Blunt by big percent 56/36 percent. 2nd pickup for Dems in us senate

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:04 pm

Looks like Duckworth beats Kirk in Illinois. Pickup in Senate for Dems

Mark Begich November 8, 20165:02 pm

Saw some sign wavers in E Anchorage working the last votes. Alaska numbers in the next few hours

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20164:35 pm

Joined my last sign-waving of the season at the corner of Northern Lights and Minnesota. I’m here with Harriet Drummond’s campaign, but Matt Claman and Mike Gordon also well-represented.

Pro-tip: Tuesday afternoon sign waving is mostly about keeping people sane. Candidates and campaigns hate feeling helpless, but the truth is that the die already cast for the most part.
Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20163:58 pm

Got my first “scoop”! From an insider familiar with Fairbanks:

“The thing operatives on both sides are talking about in the Hopkins/Coghill race is that a high number of Republicans who asked for mail ballots haven’t turned them in. A Coghill aide told me they focused their weekend phone banking on getting these people to mail their ballots in.”

Being a fake journalist is fun.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20163:51 pm

Here are the election night events and parties we have seen. If we have missed any, let us know and we’ll add yours to the list.

-We will be at the big event at Bear Tooth. Good food, good beer, and politics. What could go wrong?

-Lisa Murkowski’s campaign will be at 49th State Brewery in Downtown Anchorage. This will probably be the best-catered event. Murkowski’s campaign has more money than God and nothing left to spend it on.
-Alaska Democrats will be at Williwaw:

-The Alaska Republican Party will be at the Anchorage Hilton:

-Jason Grenn’s Campaign will be at the Boardroom in Downtown Anchorage starting at 6:30.

-Chuck Kopp, Natasha Von Imhof, and Jennifer Johnston, Chris Birch, and Mike Gordon will be at the Fat Ptarmigan.

-Donald Trump’s campaign will be at Flattop Pizza and Pool (600 W. Sixth Ave starting at 5.

-Joe Miller’s campaign is having an event at Davis Constructors at 6591 A St, Suite 300 starting at 7.

-Radio station KBYR will be broadcasting from the Anchorage Hilton.

-Pollster Ivan Moore is having his own party at the Historic Anchorage Hotel

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20162:30 pm

Looking to bet on the election? The political futures website PredictIt.com has some good odds on election results in Alaska.

Do you think Hillary really can win Alaska’s electoral votes? Well, you can get an 8-1 payoff if she does. Do you think Trump is going to win Alaska and win it big? You could get better than a 6-1 payoff if either candidate wins Alaska by more than 3 points..

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20162:13 pm

What we are hearing:

-Supporters of Millett and Pruitt are talking up polls they say they have shown their candidate up 12-15 points.
-We’re hearing Dan Coffey, who is fronting the IE group The Truth Alaska, is saying he has polling that shows both Mike Gordon and Marilyn Stewart down, but inside the polling margin of error.
-Rumors were that Rep. Ben Nageak, who lost the Democratic primary to Dean Westlake by less than a dozen votes, was planning on running a write-in campaign against Westlake in the general election. We even heard state officials had his filing paperwork. According to the Alaska Division of Elections, however, Nageak never filed and has now missed the deadline to do so.
-Joe Miller’s campaign tells us they still have a ton of those 2010 Alaska GOP mailers his campaign sent out this year left over. Chances are you haven’t seen the last of them in your mailbox.
-We’re told Sen. Lyman Hoffman has made it clear he will be organizing with Sen. Pete Kelly no matter the outcome of the election tonight. That all but dooms any chance of Democrats winning enough seats tonight to form a bipartisan majority.
-Word is coming in from all over Alaska of strong voter turnout on election day. That follows strong early voting. This is starting to look like a high-turnout election, even for a presidential cycle. Who does that help? That is still to be seen.
Forrest Dunbar November 8, 20162:11 pm

Slate.com has a new feature at the top of their page called the “Turnout Tracker,” which purports to estimate turnout in the Presidential election in several swing states based on early vote data, polling, and observed turnouts in real time.

IF it is accurate (and that’s a big “if”), Hillary is currently leading Trump in Florida by more than 300,000 votes out of over 9 milion cast. That, right there, would pretty much be the ball game. But go check it out for yourself, if you’re curious.
Casey Reynolds November 8, 20161:59 pm

Returns about to come in in Indiana….IT BEGINS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201612:44 pm

Sorry Casey, I edited/updated that post to ask a different question while you were posting your response. I will endeavor to not do so tonight when the action really gets going :)

In response to your question, I think it’s better to look at it more through an incumbent/non-incumbent lens. I suspect that unusually high turnout will be bad for incumbents in AK. But you’re right– it’s still too early to tell!
Casey Reynolds November 8, 201612:41 pm

Forrest Dunbar – Depends on the district. I think in left-leaning districts it is good for Ds and in right-leaning districts it is good for Rs. Overall, since Alaska is a red state, I’d say it isn’t good for Hillary.
Other than that I’d say it is too early to tell. We don’t know who is coming out to vote. We are hearing in Michigan middle-class whites are coming out in strong numbers and in Florida we are hearing the same about Latinos. Do you have any thoughts on your own questions, Forrest?

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201612:36 pm

Casey (or anyone else now online), we’re seeing reports like this from all over Alaska indicating strong early vote turnout:

Do we think this indicates stronger overall turnout, or shifting voter preferences for how they cast their ballots?

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201612:35 pm

And here are the house races we think are in play.

Forrest Dunbar November 8, 201612:13 pm

New blog, who dis?

Casey Reynolds November 8, 201612:02 pm

Here is the two state senate races we are watching tonight.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:08 am

Here is what the Baxter Elementary precinct looked like when the polls opened. There were at least 50 people waiting in line and plenty more filtering in as voting began. This is one of the biggest precincts in Lance Pruitt and Cathy Giessel’s district.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20169:05 am

Lisa Murkowski, Mike Gordon, Harriet Drummond, and Matt Claman had their people all gathered around Benson and Minnesota. It is odd that none of the walked a few hundred feet down the street and have Northern Lights and Minnesota all to themselves. Maybe they just wanted to be really, really close to the legislature’s second Anchorage LIO.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:59 am

Don Young’s people had another strong showing on the corner of Benson and New Seward

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:57 am

Trump and Mike Gordon had Northern Lights and New Seward all to themselves. The Trump guys yelled at me “Trumpers love Mike Gordon.”

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:55 am

Democrats owned Boniface and Northern Lights.

They also had a great set up with donuts, coffee, and music.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20168:48 am

Election day in Alaska means one thing: SIGN WAVING!!!!

Here is Harry Crawford, Lance Pruitt, and Cathy Giessel and their crews out sign waving in front of Anchorage Baptist Temple.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20166:08 am

Remember the good ole days when your email junk fold we filled with erectile dysfunction medication ads and offers from Nigerian princes?

During election season my box looks more like this:

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20165:39 am

Recent polls say either Clinton or Trump can win Alaska, but 538’s model doesn’t show it quite so close.

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20165:27 am

Nothing starts off election day like fresh polling numbers. Here is where Gravis Marketing puts the presidential race in Alaska:

Casey Reynolds November 8, 20164:54 am

Welcome to our live election coverage. Stick with us throughout the day for the latest developments in Alaska’s elections.

1 Comment on "Election Live – 2016 General Election"

  1. It is funny to read the earlier “news” story posted down below: New Poll show Trump – Clinton Tied in Alaska. Maybe do a follow up story on how this poll was so far from the reality, even more so than the national polls…

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