Nate Silver: Trump’s Numbers Not What They Appear

If you are worried that Donald Trump is taking the country by storm, statistician Nate Silver of says the numbers should provide ample solace Trump isn’t the juggernaut the media is making him out to be. In fact, the real Presidential campaign may not have even started yet. 

One of Silver’s prime arguments is that most voters, even Republican primary voters, are not paying attention yet.


Here in Alaska there is further evidence to prove that while the media may be all hyped up about the race, there is still a long way to go before real voting decisions are made.

Alaska’s Republican primary (Presidential Preference Poll) is slated for March 1st. That means we are just under 100 days until voters head to the polls and remarkably only about half of the candidates whose names you probably recognize are even signed up to appear on the ballot. According to the Alaska Republican Party candidates currently on the ballot are Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Donald Trump. That means not on the ballot are Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum. Fiorina and Paul are notable since Fiorina is considered a contender on the national level and Paul is one of the only candidates to actually come to Alaska.

If these campaigns haven’t even signed up for the ballot yet, isn’t there a good chance that most voters here haven’t made their commitments either?

You can read Silver’s full article here.

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