Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Reseach posted this early dive into the numbers on a Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan.
Back in January, we fielded one of our Alaska Survey projects (statewide 750 sample, Alaska adults) on which we asked positive-negative ratings for Murkowski and Sullivan.
Rating among ALL registered voters (651 sample):
Seems like Murkowski has the advantage in the contest… but the Republican primary isn’t contested among all registered voters, but among registered Republicans and non-partisan/undeclared voters who choose the Republican ballot. But it just so happened we asked primary ballot choice on the same survey…
Rating among R primary voters (312 sample):
Murkowski’s rating barely changes at all… her uniform strength across the political spectrum is also her greatest weakness in a Republican primary. Sullivan’s rating, on the other hand, improves by ten points.
Among just registered Republicans (191 sample):
Among just Republicans, Sullivan’s numbers become superior. Now, we didn’t ask head to head… we’ll be doing that in our upcoming June survey, but these ratings indicate that this race is competitive.
You can find more numbers on Alaska politics at Alaska Survey Research’s Facebook page.