Early Polling Analysis On Murkowski-Sullivan Matchup


Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Reseach posted this early dive into the numbers on a Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan.

12573716_585807414905229_2355246539745435253_nSo how will Senator Lisa Murkowski and Former Mayor Dan Sullivan stack up in a Republican primary for the US Senate?

Back in January, we fielded one of our Alaska Survey projects (statewide 750 sample, Alaska adults) on which we asked positive-negative ratings for Murkowski and Sullivan.

Rating among ALL registered voters (651 sample):


Murkowski 51-28-19-2
Sullivan 41-27-24-9

Seems like Murkowski has the advantage in the contest… but the Republican primary isn’t contested among all registered voters, but among registered Republicans and non-partisan/undeclared voters who choose the Republican ballot. But it just so happened we asked primary ballot choice on the same survey…

Rating among R primary voters (312 sample):

Murkowski 51-28-18-3
Sullivan 51-17-24-8

Murkowski’s rating barely changes at all… her uniform strength across the political spectrum is also her greatest weakness in a Republican primary. Sullivan’s rating, on the other hand, improves by ten points.

Among just registered Republicans (191 sample):

Murkowski 50-27-21-2
Sullivan 56-12-21-11

Among just Republicans, Sullivan’s numbers become superior. Now, we didn’t ask head to head… we’ll be doing that in our upcoming June survey, but these ratings indicate that this race is competitive.

You can find more numbers on Alaska politics at Alaska Survey Research’s Facebook page.

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1 Comment on "Early Polling Analysis On Murkowski-Sullivan Matchup"

  1. MsLibertarian | June 4, 2016 at 4:42 pm | Reply

    Please include Cean Stevens for US Senate in your next poll. There are at least a dozen contenders for US Senate, but there will be only a few in the ADL primary, and several in the Republican primary. How would Cean do in a matchup with Murkowski and Stock? How about a matchup with Cean, Sullivan and Stock?

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