Congress is expected to send the Republican tax bill to the President today. The House has already approved the measure (with Rep. Don Young’s vote) and the Senate is expected to pass it (with the support for Alaska Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan) tonight.
There’s been plenty of talk about just how the bill will impact taxpayers throughout the country, and here’s the latest that we could find breaking down the bill’s impacts on Alaskans by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. To put it generally, everyone gets a tax cut to some degree in the earlier years of the bill and everyone but the ultra-rich will see a tax increase in 2027, when most of the tax bill provisions are set to expire.
Meanwhile, Alaska will get an opportunity to open part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.
The tax cuts people will see next year range from 0.7 percent for the poorest 20 percent of Alaskans (the 54,350 people making less than $24,070) to 5.7 percent for the richest one percent (the 3,570 people making more than $532,590). That means that, according to ITEP, Alaskans will see their taxes cut by a total of about $852 million, but the poorest 20 percent taken together would only see their tax burden shrink by $7 million or about 1 percent of the overall cut. The richest 1 percent taken together would see their tax burden shrink by $280 million, or 31 percent of the overall tax bill’s benefits.
The middle 60 percent of Alaskans (the 198,700 people making between $24,070 to $112,680) would, taken together, only see about 26 percent of the benefit from the tax bill.
Here’s a chart for what people should expect in the early years of the bill.
Like most other analyses of the bill, the ITEP report shows that most people other than the richest 5 percent will see tax increases in 2027. That’s because the bill doesn’t make cuts for the lower- or middle-income taxpayers permanent, and it instead makes the cuts for large corporations permanent. In a call with reporters earlier this year, U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan said this is because it will give companies greater fiscal certainty to invest well into the future.
The decade-away tax hikes have generally been brushed aside by Republicans who’ve suggested some other legislative fix could be put in place between now and then.
And here’s a clearer comparison of what each tax bracket should expect if the tax bill goes into effect barring any fixes before 2027.