Gov. Walker trails a distant third in latest poll of three-way race for governor

Mark Begich, Gov. Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy. The three are headed for a three-way race for governor in the fall.

Alaska Gov. Bill Walker trails at a distant third in the latest poll of the presumptive three-way race for Alaska governor released Tuesday by the Alaska Correctional Officers Association.

In a three-way race between Walker, Democratic candidate Mark Begich and Republican front-runner Mike Dunleavy, Walker takes just 23 percent of the vote if the election was held today. Dunleavy would take 38 percent of the vote and Begich would get 33 percent of the vote. 6 percent of respondents were undecided.

The polling confirms what most have assumed about the layout of a three-way race between the three men: That a race that includes both Begich and Walker could hand a victory to Dunleavy. Polling earlier this year suggested that both Walker and Begich would win in head-to-head races against Dunleavy.

Dunleavy has yet to secure the nomination and will face a crowded primary with former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and Scott Hawkins both putting up potentially formidable challenges. There’s already GOP-tied political action committees formed to oppose Dunleavy’s nomination and support Treadwell’s nomination.

The poll was conducted by Alaska Survey Research between June 15 and 21 of this year. A news release about the poll says the survey contacted 654 registered Alaska voters from around the state with a margin of error of about 3.8 percent.

The released survey results also include polling on favorability ratings of the three candidates. Begich tops this list with 49 percent of respondents saying they have a favorable rating of the former U.S. senator to 34 percent that say they have a negative opinion of him. Walker is the most divisive of the candidates with a 42 percent positive rating to a 39 percent negative rating.

Dunleavy will have a hill to climb when it comes to name recognition as 23 percent of respondents said they had never heard of the former state senator from Wasilla (only 5 percent of respondents said they didn’t recognize Walker or Begich). Dunleavy’s positive rating hits 34 percent with a 22 percent negative rating.

By the numbers:

In a three-way race for governor, if it were held today:

  • Mike Dunleavy, Republican: 38 percent
  • Mark Begich, Democrat: 33 percent
  • Bill Walker, independent incumbent: 23 percent
  • Undecided: 6 percent

Favorability ratings:

  • Bill Walker: Positive 42 percent; Negative 39 percent; Neutral 14 percent; Who? 5 percent
  • Mark Begich: Positive 49 percent; Negative 35 percent; Neutral 11 percent; Who? 4 percent
  • Mike Dunleavy: Positive 34 percent; Negative 22 percent; Neutral 20 percent; Who? 23 percent

Here’s the full press release:

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