Tracker poll shows Alyse Galvin narrowing the distance on Don Young

Alyse Galvin and Don Young.

If you need some diversion from the state of the governor’s race, take a look at the latest tracker poll from Alaska Survey Research that shows independent congressional candidate Alyse Galvin is continuing to close in on Alaska U.S. Rep. Don Young.

The tracker poll, which covers Oct. 12 through Oct. 14, shows Galvin is now just two-points behind Young at 47.2 percent of the vote to Young’s 49.2 percent. The survey contacted 500 likely voters for the Nov. 6 election and has a self-reported margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Last week’s tracker showed Galvin down by just 3.7 percentage points. The tracker polling began with Galvin down by 11.2 percentage points.

CandidateSept. 21-25Oct. 1-6Oct. 12-14
Alyse Galvin (I)42.5%46.0%47.2%
Don Young (R)53.8%49.7%49.2%

Galvin, who’s running as an independent on the Alaska Democratic Party’s ticket, still has challenges ahead for the race. She’s unknown to 35 percent of Alaskans, according to the survey while just 2.5 percent of Alaskans don’t know who Young is. Galvin is also widely popular among Democrats (64 percent) while she had a net positive approval with independents (35 percent positive to 10 percent negative). Nearly a majority of Republicans don’t know who Galvin is (46 percent) while 23 percent said they had a negative view of her.

The approval numbers are similar for Young, but it’s his negatives that should be troubling. He gets a 60 percent approval rating from Republicans and a 37 percent approval rating with independents, while he has a 68 percent disapproval with Democrats, 43 percent disapproval with independents and a 24 percent disapproval rating with Republicans.

Yep, strictly speaking more Republicans disapprove of Young than disapprove of Galvin.

Galvin surpassed Young’s total fundraising for the election cycle with $1,184,173.97 to Young’s $1,009,276.50. Young still holds an overall fundraising advantage over Galvin thanks to money brought in from previous races. He’s spent $966,652.55 and has $312,350.81 on hand for the remainder of the race. Gavling’s spent $909,668.84 and has $274,505.13 on hand.

A poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, covering Oct. 11 through Oct. 12 put the race at Young 46 percent to Galvin at 43 percent.

FiveThirtyEight’s running forecast for the race now gives Galvin a three-in-ten shot at winning the seat.

Polling on the governor’s race

And because we can never ever escape the governor’s race, here’s what the tracker poll says about the governor’s race (this would have merited its own post, but something bigger happened).

CandidateSept. 21-25Oct. 1-6Oct. 12-14
Mark Begich (D)29.0%22.6%26.4%
Mike Dunleavy (R)44.4%46.5%43.4%
Bill Walker (I)22.9%27.0%26.6%

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