Friday in the Sun (Oct. 19): The ‘Path Forward’ edition

Friday in the Sun is here

Welp.

It’s been a week. As always, use your brain and take everything with a heaping dose of salt. We’re publishing a little earlier today with the full expectation that much of this, particularly the first item, could be out of date in a matter of hours. Have fun.

A Path Forward

It should be no surprise that there’s been incredible pressure on the Gov. Bill Walker and his campaign to withdraw from the race for governor and put their support behind Democratic candidate Mark Begich. The shocking resignation of Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott has lead many politicos, us included, to declare the governor’s chances of winning re-election at zero. They were never that great to begin with.

Walker, for his part, has played down the rumors, but has not said anything necessarily definitive either way.

What we do know is that the Walker and Begich camps were certainly in talks about some kind of consolidation before the deadline to withdraw from the race, but they stalled out over just what the top of the ticket would look like (honestly, could imagine either Walker or Begich taking the lieutenant governor role? Yeah, neither can we). Things are less clear about just what’s gone on since then, but there have been lower level talks.

The fast appointment of DHSS Commissioner Valerie Davidson to lieutenant governor has certainly buoyed the campaign. She was a smash hit when she took the stage Thursday as the keynote speaker at the Alaska Federation of Natives’s annual convention. Her appointment seems like the only bit of bright news out of an otherwise miserable run of things for the Walker campaign. It could keep hopes alive, and with more time (and the ability to change the ballots) we could see his campaign recovering, but then again we’re up against the deadline already.

That said, with the withdrawal deadline well in our rear view mirror and with the baggage of Mallott’s resignation, the window has likely closed on any sort of consolidation or combination at the top of the ticket (though we personally kinda like the sound of a Begich-Davidson ticket floated by House candidate Ed Alexander).

If Walker withdraws (though he’d stay on the ticket) and puts his support behind Begich, we could see him having a role in the Begich administration on his beloved AKLNG project, but he won’t have a place in the top of the administration as some have hoped.

Still, the withdrawal at this point of the race also isn’t a surefire way to consolidate support around Begich. Regardless of what Walker does, you can count on him still getting at least 10 percent of the vote through people who truly support Walker and people who don’t get the message.

We’ve seen this play out before. Look at last year’s Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly race where Leah Berman Williams came up five votes short against conservative Aaron Lojewski even though another candidate withdrew to put his support behind Williams, but missed the withdrawal deadline. His vote total without a campaign? About 10 percent.

Early voting beginning on Monday. The clock’s ticking for the campaign to make a decision.

If Walker does suspend his campaign, politicos are expecting it to happen before the conclusion of the AFN convention.

Mallott

There’s been a lot of people wondering just what Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott said and to whom. For the record, all we know for sure is that it was serious enough to completely warrant his immediate resignation and the claims that this is some sort of orchestrated tanking is completely bullshit. Still, there’s been a whole bevvy of rumors and speculation put out there, but without anything more concrete than  an “I’ve heard” or “Word is,” we’re going to stay away from repeating any of them in this space.

The administration and the Walker campaign obviously haven’t helped to put any of this to rest, and expect rumor mill to continue to churn as the story slow burns. Their consideration of the privacy of the victim is correct and admirable in a world that still contains such incredible risk for the women who decide to step forward, but the lack of information remains troubling. Are we to take their word for it that it wasn’t criminal? That it was a one-time lapse of judgement? That it he’s actually paid the price for his actions?

It’s a difficult situation, but one that begs for a reasonable and measured response for the sake of the victim, Mallott and the state.

On the flip side of the coin

There’s been plenty of talk, speculation and preemptive dismissals of some kind of October surprise targeted at Dunleavy. Rumors of all kinds have been swirling around the political and media landscape for months about Dunleavy, and there are some common threads in most of these but there’s a reason a lot of them have stayed in the rumor mill (you know, except for the Anchorage Press). No one’s been able to come anywhere close to confirming these.

There’s a three-page letter that details some of these claims that’s been floating around and made it into the hands of some journalists (and conservative media, we hear). From what we’ve heard, is that it originally came out of the same establishment-y pro-business camp that was backing Mead Treadwell as a last-minute, doomed-from-the-start alternative to Dunleavy (our money is also on this being the same group that tried to recruit Walker for the primary). They shopped it around during the primary, but have gone silent since then.

While you can rightly bash the preemptive publishing of these unsubstantiated rumors out there, we’ve heard rumblings that there are some legitimate and exhaustive efforts to confirm these rumors and bring them to light in a substantive way.

Stay tuned. We also expect to see a full denial regardless of the evidence.

A little levity

Alaska’s politics have been pretty miserable, and then there’s this absolutely ghoulish radio ad by Democratic senate candidate Jesse Kiehl.

For what it’s worth, politicos that were initially pretty concerned about this race between Kiehl and Republican-friendly labor guy Don Etheridge have seemed to cool on the race. By the sounds of it, labor didn’t come along with Etheridge quite as much as some expected and it sounds like most believe Kiehl has this in the race wrapped up like a mummy.

Oh! That’s why those signs look familiar

Oh, remember when the most exciting thing about the election this week was this realization of why all those pro-Dunleavy PAC signs look so familiar.

(Graphic by Veronica Campbell)

We chatted with creator Veronica Campbell who said she wasn’t trying to say anything political with the post, but that “I do like beer and rainbows though.”

Shrug of the Week

So many dumb posts were sidelined by this week’s news, but we would have followed up last week’s inaugural edition of Shrug of the Week with Mike Dunleavy actually showing up for a forum, just one that wasn’t free for the public to attend.

There’s really something to be said when the leading candidate skips out on tons of forums hosted by groups like the NAACP, Alaska Natives, students and fisheries to just name a few, but he will show up to a debate where the minimum to get in the door is $27. The Anchorage Rotary forum was generally bland, too, with milquetoast questions about improving the economy and the Port of Alaska/Anchorage.

The only thing notable to come out of it was an on-the-spot agreement for Walker and Dunleavy to hold a debate, which we can’t imagine will ever come to fruition.

At the very least we can look forward to the AFN debate scheduled later for today (more on that below).

Magic Mike Numbers

That’s how Mark Begich described Dunleavy’s budget numbers during the Thursday Resource Development Council’s gubernatorial forum. Begich has long been pointing out the faulty/wishful thinking of Dunleavy’s budget, which Begich criticizes for leaving a deficit and failing to inflation proof the permanent fund.

Via tweet, here’s the exchange:

If you’re hoping that Dunleavy gave any specifics you’ll be disappointed unless you think “control the size of government” is specific enough.

Other forums

The candidates for governor are set to appear in front of the Alaska Federation of Natives’ annual convention later today. The election forum is set to begin at 2:20 p.m. and will be livestreamed. Congressional candidates Alyse Galvin and Don Young will also be taking the stage.

The West Anchorage community councils are hosting a legislative candidate forum on Wednesday, Oct. 24 from 6 to 8:40 p.m. at the Spenard Recreation Center’s multi-purpose room at 2020 W 48th Ave. The races that will be covered at the forum include Senate districts I and K, and House Districts 18, 21, 22 and 23.

Republican-turned-independent Rep. Paul Seaton will be at a forum with Republican challenger Sarah Vance at the House District 31 forum on Saturday at 4 p.m at the Friends of the Homer Public Library.

If you’re up in Fairbanks, you can catch the candidates for governor at the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce’s forum on Wednesday, Oct 24 from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Westmark Hotel.

Site updates

So, huh, it turns out that people appreciate having a contact page on The Midnight Sun. We did some housekeeping on the site in the last week to make it easier to find older posts and get int touch, and, surprise, people have been using it.

Along those lines, we’ve received a few requests about putting together a newsletter and would like some additional input on just what you’d like to see out of one. We some ideas for session on this front, but curious what you want out of it.

Hit me up with any ideas or suggestions through our, ahem, contact page!

On the air

You can find your always humble editor on the air in two different places this week. On Tuesday’s edition of Alaska News Nightly to discuss the Mallott resignation, and on Ken Rudin’s Political Junkie to discuss Murkowski (and the Mallott resignation).

$5,601,136.91

That’s the amount of money independent expenditure groups have spent on state candidate races this election cycle according to a quick rundown of the independent expenditure reports we ran this morning. Unsurprisingly, the biggest target of this spending is the governor’s race where a grand total of $2.3 million has been spent either supporting or opposing the election of Mike Dunleavy, $1.53 million has been spent either supporting or opposing Bill Walker and about $800,000 has been spent on Mark Begich.

The legislative candidate with the most total spending was now-defeated Jim Colver, who was looking to unseat Rep. George Rauscher in House District 9. Colver had previously been aligned with the moderate Republicans that went on to be the core of the House bipartisan coalition and was expected to be a chance to bolster the coalition. Rauscher won with a wide margin of victory.

The top race that’s still active is, of course, the battle for the Senate between Republican Sen. Pete Kelly and Democratic Rep. Scott Kawasaki. Their combined fundraising total has already crossed $300,000, making it the most expensive race. The independent expenditure spending for the race totals $171,095.

Kelly has drawn a total $90,088.30 in independent expenditures with $88,958.51 supporting his candidacy by Republican State Leadership Committee proxy group Families of the Last Frontier, the Republican Party, the Associated Builders and Contractors of Alaska and the Alaska Free Market Coalition. He’s faced just $1,129.79 in opposition spending by Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest.

Kawasaki is the target of $81,006.76 in spending with a majority of it being in the form of opposition spending. That opposition spending totals $56,300.00 and comes from Families of the Last Frontier and the Alaska Free Market Coalition. He has benefitted from $24,706.76 by Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest, The Alaska Center, Native Peoples Action, Inc. and the Alaska Laborers’ Political & Education Committee.

Here’s the full breakdown of spending:

Candidate/PropositionSupportsOpposesTotalSupportersOpponents
2018 - Michael J. Dunleavy$1,851,817.86$476,851.72$2,328,669.582018 - Families for Alaska’s Future- Dunleavy, 2018 - Dunleavy for Alaska, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition, 2018 - Associated Builders and Contractors of Alaska2018 - Unite Alaska for Walker, 2018 - Alaskans Against Dunleavy, Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , 2018 - NEA-Alaska PACE (Political Action Committee for Education), 2018 - Educators Against Dunleavy
2018 - Bill Walker$871,733.27$663,845.02$1,535,578.292018 - Unite Alaska for Walker, 2018 - NEA-Alaska PACE (Political Action Committee for Education), 2018 - Working Families of Alaska, 2018 - IUOE Local 302 PAC (International Union of Operating Engineers Local 302 Political Action CommittePlanned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , 2018 - Families for Alaska’s Future- Dunleavy
2018 - Mark Begich$164,667.76$644,940.54$809,608.30Alaskans Together for Equality
Rojas, Elias , Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , 2018 - Begich for Alaska
2018 - Families for Alaska’s Future- Dunleavy
2018 - Jim Colver$81,507.25$27,733.44$109,240.692018 - Putting Alaskans First Committee, 2018 - Working Families of Alaska, 2018 - NEA-Alaska PACE (Political Action Committee for Education), 2018 - Alaskans for Jim Colver2018 - Families of the Last Frontier, 2018 - Alaska Republican Party, 2018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Peter Gene Kelly$88,958.51$1,129.79$90,088.302018 - Families of the Last Frontier, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition, 2018 - Associated Builders and Contractors of Alaska, 2018 - Alaska Republican PartyPlanned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Scott Kawasaki$24,706.76$56,300.00$81,006.76Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R, Native Peoples Action, Inc.
Kloster, Kendra Renee, 2018 - Alaska Laborers' Political & Education Committee, Native Peoples Action, Inc.
Kloster, Kendra
2018 - Families of the Last Frontier, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - Mead Treadwell$70,550.00$0.00$70,550.002018 - Mead Treadwell For Alaska's Future
2018 - JASON GRENN$53,000.00$0.00$53,000.002018 - Alaskans for Public Safety Now, 2018 - Working Families of Alaska
2018 - Jamie D. Allard$25,978.73$17,165.41$43,144.142018 - The Accountability Project, 2018 - Alaska Republican Party2018 - Putting Alaskans First Committee
2018 - Kathryn Dodge$42,844.05$0.00$42,844.05Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R, 2018 - Alaska Laborers' Political & Education Committee, 2018 - Putting Alaskans First Committee
2018 - Joshua C. Revak$38,891.71$0.00$38,891.712018 - Let's Back Revak, 2018 - The Accountability Project, 2018 - ALASKANS FOR KEVIN MEYER, 2018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Nancy Anne Dahlstrom$34,780.74$0.00$34,780.742018 - Working Families of Alaska, 2018 - Alaskans for Public Safety Now
2018 - Pat Higgins$30,448.56$0.00$30,448.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R, 2018 - Putting Alaskans First Committee
2018 - Louise B Stutes$8,000.00$19,548.55$27,548.552018 - Working Families of Alaska2018 - Families of the Last Frontier
2018 - George Rauscher$17,541.49$9,000.00$26,541.492018 - Families of the Last Frontier, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition, Family Policy Alliance
Barth, Douglas K.
2018 - Working Families of Alaska
2018 - Chuck Kopp$23,112.68$1,280.00$24,392.682018 - Working Families of Alaska, 2018 - Alaskans for Public Safety NowRICHARD MCCLURE
2018 - Don R Etheridge$23,968.20$0.00$23,968.202018 - Public Employees Local 71 Supporting League, 2018 - Working Families of Alaska
2018 - Andrea "Andi" Story$21,687.53$0.00$21,687.53Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , 2018 - Working Families of Alaska, 2018 - Alaska Laborers' Political & Education Committee
2018 - Scott Hawkins$20,771.08$0.00$20,771.082018 - Alaskans for Scott Hawkins
2018 - Liz Snyder$19,371.35$0.00$19,371.35Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Kevin Gerald Meyer$17,857.19$0.00$17,857.192018 - ALASKANS FOR KEVIN MEYER, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - Daniel H Ortiz (Dan)$15,500.00$0.00$15,500.002018 - Working Families of Alaska
2018 - Paul Seaton$2,586.96$8,801.00$11,387.96Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Families of the Last Frontier
2018 - Matt Claman$4,179.19$6,215.00$10,394.19Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R, 2018 - Working Families of Alaska
2018 - Families of the Last Frontier
2018 - Jesse Kiehl$10,375.55$0.00$10,375.55Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Pamela Goode$9,710.60$0.00$9,710.602018 - Friends of Pam Goode
2018 - Sarah Vance$9,060.00$0.00$9,060.002018 - Families of the Last Frontier
2018 - RICHARD WALKER$8,480.63$0.00$8,480.632018 - Families of the Last Frontier, Alaska Family Action
Minnery, James
2018 - Lance Pruitt$3,167.00$4,176.87$7,343.872018 - Alaska's Future PAC, 2018 - Alaska Free Market CoalitionPlanned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , 2018 - Putting Alaskans First Committee, 2018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Marilyn Stewart$6,365.00$0.00$6,365.002018 - Families of the Last Frontier, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - Laddie Shaw$6,222.25$0.00$6,222.252018 - Alaskans for Public Safety Now
2018 - KELLY MERRICK$5,965.58$150.00$6,115.582018 - Alaskans for Public Safety Now, 2018 - Alaska Republican Party2018 - The Accountability Project
2018 - Lyn Diane Franks$5,650.83$0.00$5,650.83Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Sara Rasmussen$4,451.40$0.00$4,451.402018 - The Accountability Project
2018 - Sara Hannan$4,409.58$0.00$4,409.58Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Ed Alexander$3,976.57$0.00$3,976.57Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R, Native Peoples Action, Inc.
Kloster, Kendra Renee
2018 - Gabrielle R LeDoux$3,000.00$770.00$3,770.002018 - Working Families of Alaska2018 - Alaska Republican Party
2018 - Joe Riggs$3,650.00$0.00$3,650.00Gerry York
2018 - Albert Fogle$0.00$3,191.35$3,191.35Alaska Family Action
Minnery, James
2018 - Elvi Gray-Jackson$2,492.07$0.00$2,492.07Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Andy Cizek$2,130.00$0.00$2,130.002018 - Save The PFD
2018 - Mark Fish$1,980.00$0.00$1,980.002018 - Mat-Su Libertarians, 2018 - Save The PFD
2018 - Tiffany Zulkosky$1,974.74$0.00$1,974.74Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure , The Alaska Center
Cavanaugh, Meghan R
2018 - Peter A. Micciche$1,456.71$0.00$1,456.712018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition, 2018 - Alaska Republican Party
2018 - Jerry Nankervis$975.00$0.00$975.002018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - Barton S. LeBon$913.31$0.00$913.312018 - Interior Voters, 2018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - Kevin M McKinley$763.31$0.00$763.312018 - Interior Voters
2018 - Bekah Halat$483.73$0.00$483.732018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Charisse E Millett$0.00$483.73$483.732018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Chris Birch$0.00$483.73$483.732018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - DeLena Johnson$0.00$483.73$483.732018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Don Jones$483.73$0.00$483.732018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Edna DeVries$483.73$0.00$483.732018 - Alaska Conservative Leadership PAC
2018 - Mia Costello$480.00$0.00$480.002018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - William Weatherby$455.00$0.00$455.002018 - Alaska Republican Party, 2018 - Save The PFD
2018 - Michael K Shower$405.00$0.00$405.002018 - Alaska Free Market Coalition
2018 - Andrew Louis Josephson$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Chris Dimond$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Debra Lynn Call$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Geran Tarr$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Gloria S. "Sue" Levi $236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Grier Hopkins$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Harriet A. Drummond$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Ivy Spohnholz$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Janice Park$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Joe Hackenmueller$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Oliver Schiess$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Sam Cason$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Shawn A Butler$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Van Lawrence$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - William Z "Zack" Fields$236.56$0.00$236.56Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Amber Marie Lee$236.55$0.00$236.55Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii
Mackley, Treasure
2018 - Connie Dougherty$100.00$0.00$100.00Alaska Family Action
Minnery, James
2018 - Eugene Harnett$43.33$0.00$43.332018 - Alaska Republican Party

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1 Comment on "Friday in the Sun (Oct. 19): The ‘Path Forward’ edition"

  1. Begich/Call is the new unity ticket.

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