Tracker poll puts Democrat Begich within 5 points of Republican Dunleavy after Gov. Walker halted his campaign

Mark Begich, Gov. Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy. The three are headed for a three-way race for governor in the fall.

After ping-ponging back and forth with Gov. Bill Walker in the first three tracker polls conducted by pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research, Mark Begich has consolidate much of the support and now stands within 5 percentage points of Republican Mike Dunleavy.

The polling was conducted over the weekend after Walker had announced he had suspended his campaign and endorsed Begich, and its results were published by Alaska Public Media on Tuesday. It puts Dunleavy in the lead with 48.3 percent of the vote, Begich in second with 43.7 percent and Walker with 5.3 percent of the vote.

It’s important to note that the question about the race included a statement detailing Walker’s suspended campaign and his endorsement for Begich. As much as Begich supporters might like it, that information will not appear on the ballot. Walker’s name will be on the ballot and even after being filled in on the state of the race more than 5 percent of voters said they’d still cast a vote for Walker.

CandidateSept. 21-25Oct. 1-6Oct. 12-14Oct. 19-22
Mark Begich (D)29.0%22.6%26.4%43.70%
Mike Dunleavy (R)44.4%46.5%43.4%48.30%
Bill Walker (I)22.9%27.0%26.6%5.30%

Though the results of the survey paint the best picture so far for the anti-Dunleavy vote, this also marks the best polling result for Dunleavy out of the four tracker polls.

It’s unclear just what Walker will do in the remaining time before election day, but according to the survey his close involvement with Begich could be a drag on the Democrat’s campaign. Under a hypothetical scenario where Walker gets out strongly with Begich, the results would be 50.6 percent in favor of Dunleavy, 44.1 percent in favor of Begich and 2.4 percent in favor of Walker. As we reported yesterday, though Walker last had about $150,000 in the bank state law puts some pretty strong limitations on what he can do with that money.

Early voting is already underway. Election day is Nov. 6.


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