There’s a lot of polling going on right now, but very little of it will ever see the light of day.
A new crowd-funded poll by Public Policy Polling was released this morning, showing tight races for the U.S. House race, U.S. Senate Race and, yep, even the race for president. On the state front, the polling found Gov. Mike Dunleavy has a net negative approval rating, but a plurality of voters does support keeping him in office.
The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, robocalling/texting 1,081 Alaska voters on July 7 and July 8 with a self-reported margin of error of +/-3%. PPP has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, but it should be noted that Alaska is notoriously difficult to accurately poll.
“PPP’s new Alaska poll finds that the Presidential race in the state this year might be the closest it’s been since the 1960s,” proclaims the first line of the polling agency’s news release. “Donald Trump is under water on his approval rating, with 46% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove. He leads Joe Biden by just 3 points at 48-45. Biden has a double-digit lead with independent voters at 52-39. Republicans have won the state by at least 9 points in every election since 1968.”
Biden’s still not close to being popular in Alaska with 36% favorable, 53% unfavorable and 11% unsure.
Incumbent Republicans on the ballot—and not—are all underwater with their approval ratings. President Donald Trump is 46% approve, 49% disapprove and 5% unsure. U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan is at 35% approve, 37% disapprove and 27% unsure. U.S. Rep. Don Young is at 35% approve, 44% disapprove and 22% unsure. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy stands at 42% approve, 45% disapprove and 14% unsure.
While everyone but Young’s approval rating is within the margin of error, PPP’s results are unequivocal on U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s job performance following dust ups with Trump that have enraged the president and his base while never going quite far enough to fully win over allies in the middle or left.
She stands at a dismal 29% approve, 55% disapprove and 16% unsure.
At least when respondents were asked if higher opinion of Lisa Murkowski or Donald Trump, they picked Murkowski by a margin of error: 48% to 45% with 7% unsure.
As for the races, PPP says Alaska’s race for U.S. Senate between the Trump-friendly Sullivan and Democrat-backed independent Al gross could be heading into the competitive realm while the rematch between Young and Democrat-backed independent Alyse Galvin “looks like a toss-up.”
“You can add Alaska to the growing list of potentially competitive Senate races where Republicans are going to have to play defense this fall. Dan Sullivan hasn’t established much of a profile with voters in the state- only 35% approve of the job he’s doing to 37% who disapprove, and 27% have no opinion about him one way or the other. He leads Al Gross just 39-34 for reelection,” explains the PPP release. “Gross isn’t very well known yet—72% of voters say they have no opinion about him. Among the voters who are familiar enough with him to have an opinion he actually leads Sullivan 56-36, suggesting that if he has the funds necessary to become well known in the state he will have a good chance at making it a top tier race.”
The polling also finds that Galvin has the best net approval rating among the eight politicians polled in the survey: 30% favorable, 22% unfavorable and 48% unsure. And while she may be winning in this poll, PPP urges some skepticism.
“The US House race in the state looks like a toss-up, with Alyse Galvin holding a slight advantage over Don Young at 43-41,” explains the group. “It’s worth noting though that the undecideds in the House race are supporting Trump for President by 26 points—if they ended up voting the same party for House it would easily push Young back into the lead. There’s a lot of Republican-leaning voters who don’t really like Young but may end up supporting him in the end.”
The polling also suggests that time has taken some of the edge off Alaskans’ enthusiasm about removing Gov. Dunleavy from office, even if they don’t approve of the job he’s doing.
“Alaskans are closely divided in their feelings about Governor Mike Dunleavy. 42% approve of the job he’s doing, to 45% who disapprove,” explained the report. “Even though voters in the state aren’t enamored with him, they don’t favor recalling him from office either. Just 39% say they would support removing him from office before his term is up, to 46% opposed to such a move. This is a similar dynamic to what PPP often saw in Scott Walker’s recall election- there was a certain segment of voters that didn’t like him but also didn’t support recalling him, and that made the chances of a successful recall low.”
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