Democrats account for nearly a quarter of votes already cast in Alaska

Democrats’ numbers advantage in early and absentee voting evaporated over the weekend as Republicans showed up to the polls.

According to numbers analyzed by The Midnight Sun, Republicans now hold the numbers advantage over Democrats in terms of votes already cast—including an advantage in votes that will be counted on election night—but the Democratic voters still account for an outsized portion of total votes.

As of Sunday, 152,585 Alaskans have cast their ballots. By our analysis of early voting and absentee voting rolls, that breaks down to 39,890 Republicans, 34,693 Democrats, 71,766 independent voters (either undeclared or nonpartisan voters) and a little more than 6,000 voters belonging to other parties.

Democrats make up just 13.5% of all registered voters in Alaska but 22.7% of all ballots already cast. Republicans account for 24.4% of the electorate and 26.1% of the votes already cast. Meanwhile independent voters account for 57.2% of the electorate but just 47% of the votes already cast, and third-party voters make up 8.2% of the electorate but just 4.1% of the total vote.

So far, turnout is 47.4% the total turnout from the 2016 election when 321,271 votes were cast.

This vote count breaks down into two categories: Early in-person voting and absentee voting.

Early in-person voting is only available at 11 polling locations and votes cast through Oct. 29 will be counted on election day. The remaining early in-person votes won’t be counted until a week after election day along with the remaining absentee votes, which include by-mail voting and the more widely available early in-person absentee voting.

According to our numbers, 37,995 ballots were cast in time to be counted on election night. The partisan breakdown of those votes is 10,588 Republicans, 6,962 Democrats, 19,104 independents and 1,341 voters from third parties.

That leaves 114,608 combined absentee and early in-person votes that we’ll have to wait a week to see. The partisan breakdown of these votes is 29,302 Republicans, 27,731 Democrats, 52,662 independents and 4,913 voters belonging to third parties.

Votes that will be counted on election night

District	Total Votes	R	D	U	N	A	Other
Statewide	37,995	10,588	6,962	12,447	6,657	880	461
1	968	195	245	334	150	30	14
2	638	180	117	224	97	16	4
3	766	283	79	274	100	14	16
4	1,780	322	446	587	369	39	17
5	1,378	306	310	497	230	24	11
6	400	106	59	148	72	13	2
7	2,265	965	158	725	337	55	25
8	1,582	668	114	500	243	28	29
9	1,148	467	91	391	167	21	11
10	1,394	586	104	461	192	31	20
11	2,469	948	243	762	441	49	26
12	1,581	685	135	455	251	35	20
13	287	86	47	103	39	8	4
14	438	151	69	126	81	8	3
15	482	114	122	161	63	12	10
16	877	204	242	259	147	15	10
17	969	180	279	296	160	29	25
18	1,234	222	320	409	228	35	20
19	547	72	168	184	105	9	9
20	1,381	200	438	414	281	40	8
21	1,358	271	321	447	272	34	13
22	1,074	292	210	351	186	23	12
23	935	239	162	317	175	28	14
24	1,354	391	217	459	242	35	10
25	1,169	284	247	403	182	29	24
26	1,326	449	188	425	216	37	11
27	1,100	291	246	336	183	32	12
28	1,585	500	262	469	307	25	22
29	37	10	7	10	7	3	0
30	11	4	0	5	1	0	1
31	26	6	6	8	3	3	0
32	25	10	6	6	2	0	1
33	2,078	237	628	729	425	41	18
34	2,942	599	584	1,025	638	64	32
35	24	3	5	9	5	1	1
36	5	1	0	3	1	0	0
37	36	12	3	15	5	1	0
38	7	1	1	3	2	0	0
39	304	44	81	113	49	11	6
40	15	4	2	4	3	2	0

Votes that won’t be counted on election night

District	Total Votes	R	D	U	N	A	Other
Statewide	114,608	29,302	27,731	33,766	18,896	3,593	1,320
1	2,048	492	588	570	313	62	23
2	1,625	511	374	452	211	47	30
3	1,865	725	286	518	240	68	28
4	3,129	616	861	1,013	529	74	36
5	2,414	460	696	809	369	55	25
6	2,528	876	476	709	366	68	33
7	2,323	864	362	645	345	78	29
8	2,184	884	273	599	303	94	31
9	2,723	988	401	814	395	84	41
10	3,189	1,095	474	906	536	132	46
11	2,653	944	419	790	403	69	28
12	3,195	1,172	486	927	500	78	32
13	3,353	1,196	591	907	524	89	46
14	4,716	1,662	878	1,228	771	133	44
15	2,103	572	513	609	301	68	40
16	3,132	622	913	937	506	112	42
17	2,760	493	856	811	476	82	42
18	3,175	486	1,006	978	569	106	30
19	1,910	246	665	627	293	51	28
20	3,139	446	1,111	863	580	103	36
21	3,649	617	1,123	1,110	632	129	38
22	3,606	796	861	1,177	603	136	33
23	2,518	511	696	758	431	90	32
24	3,924	1,036	922	1,149	660	118	39
25	3,315	648	867	1,139	529	101	31
26	3,683	997	858	1,109	564	131	24
27	3,558	757	1,032	1,021	591	121	36
28	5,179	1,333	1,203	1,501	951	137	54
29	3,234	1,156	565	881	503	91	38
30	3,219	1,238	455	864	533	96	33
31	4,117	976	1,003	1,188	763	146	41
32	2,397	660	541	722	372	70	32
33	4,079	421	1,567	1,117	818	108	48
34	3,699	658	1,055	1,114	712	132	28
35	4,269	881	1,163	1,267	785	133	40
36	2,800	722	593	862	490	91	42
37	949	238	229	309	131	31	11
38	742	89	280	228	100	30	15
39	464	78	133	155	81	14	3
40	533	93	185	168	58	23	6