Republicans win big election-night margins but many races will be decided by absentee votes next week

(Editor’s note: Pretty much everything is already set in motion at this point, a culmination of months of campaigning and weeks of voting. Take some time to disconnect from it all. Not a lot is going to change ahead of next week’s absentee count.)

Just as we saw with this year’s primary election, conservative voters showed up for in-person election-day voting handing Republicans sizable margins even in traditionally Democratic districts.

With 86.7% of voting precincts reporting this morning, 182,394 votes have been counted to this year’s results. More than 120,000 additional ballots—which have generally been more progressive by voter registration—will not be counted until next Tuesday.

Additional votes can also arrive as long as they were postmarked on election day and received in time by the Division of Elections.

As it currently stands, President Donald Trump and the Republican congressional slate all hold roughly 30-point margins on their Democratic challengers in Alaska. The Republicans would need to get at least a third of uncounted ballots to hold onto their leads.

Also behind are several incumbent Democratic legislators in typically Democratic seats: Reps. Grier Hopkins, Adam Wool, Ivy Spohnholz, Matt Claman, Chris Tuck and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. All are in districts where Democrats have led Republicans in early voting and margins there are large enough that they’re likely to erase those margins next week.

Going into Tuesday, there was optimism that Democrats and Democrat-backed independents may be able to flip some legislative seats from Republicans to Democrats. Much of that optimism has already evaporated after Republicans hopped out to big leads on Tuesday, but there are three races that we think might be competitive if the numbers trend their way:

• House District 15: Democrat Lyn Franks currently trails Republican David Nelson by 389 votes, 1,022 to 1,422. There are an additional 2,188 votes that won’t be counted until next week with a near even split between Republican ballots (584) and Democratic ballots (524). Franks will have to get about 58% of remaining ballots for a narrow victory.
• House District 25: Democrat-backed independent Calvin Schrage currently trails Republican Rep. Mel Gillis by 549 votes, 1,963 to 2,794. There are an additional 3,508 ballots remaining to be counted in that race and the numbers advantage would go to the Democrats who’ve cast 895 of those ballots to the 703 cast by Republicans. Schrage needs about 56% of the remaining vote.
• House District 27: Democrat Liz Snyder trails Republican Rep. Lance Pruitt by a whopping 1,092 votes after election-day voting in what was thought to be one of the most competitive races for the Legislature. Pruitt has 2,926 votes to Snyder’s 1,834. Snyder will need the remaining 3,699 ballots to break hard in her favor even with a strong showing by Democrats, who’ve cast 1,054 ballots to Republicans’ 793. She’ll need 58% of the absentee to go her way to draw the race even.

Conservatives are likely to make at least one pick up with Republican-backed independent Josiah Patkotak holding a over Elizabeth Ferguson though only 56.5% of precincts are currently reporting. The remaining absentee ballots (540) would not be enough to make up Ferguson’s deficit (664).

Hopes for any shakeup in the Alaska Senate appear unlikely now that Fairbanks’ Senate District B where Republican Robert Myers took a 4,000-vote lead on election night over independent Marna Sanford, larger than the number of outstanding absentee ballots.

Ballot Measure 1, which proposes to raise oil taxes, looks headed to defeat, but Ballot Measure 2, which proposes a slate of election reforms aimed at opening up room for non-partisan candidates, has a shot at making up its election-night deficit with absentee votes.

Currently down by 22,876 votes, the measure would need about 56% of the absentee votes to go its way when counted next week.

What we know is left to be counted

District	Total Votes	R	D	U	N	A	Other
Statewide	119,501	30,779	28,346	35,629	19,578	3,732	1,320
1	2,240	537	622	642	344	68	23
2	1,706	532	382	485	225	50	30
3	1,987	764	293	577	252	71	28
4	3,382	684	896	1,105	565	87	36
5	2,630	515	731	891	398	63	25
6	2,577	891	484	723	376	68	33
7	2,638	996	382	764	379	85	29
8	2,375	962	283	674	322	98	31
9	2,865	1,055	406	856	413	89	41
10	3,391	1,187	480	977	557	140	46
11	3,032	1,125	439	910	447	75	28
12	3,373	1,254	497	978	526	84	32
13	3,387	1,211	596	916	527	89	46
14	4,763	1,677	883	1,245	779	134	44
15	2,188	584	524	654	311	72	40
16	3,273	649	942	997	526	116	42
17	2,927	524	886	872	509	88	42
18	3,320	501	1,039	1,041	592	111	30
19	1,983	256	681	655	304	55	28
20	3,293	478	1,149	916	603	106	36
21	3,802	649	1,154	1,176	650	133	38
22	3,719	828	883	1,215	618	141	33
23	2,679	556	717	827	448	94	32
24	4,066	1,079	938	1,207	678	120	39
25	3,508	703	895	1,210	559	106	31
26	3,860	1,053	882	1,168	593	138	24
27	3,699	793	1,054	1,078	610	124	36
28	5,317	1,376	1,221	1,540	984	138	54
29	3,240	1,157	565	884	504	92	38
30	3,229	1,243	455	869	533	96	33
31	4,127	978	1,005	1,193	763	147	41
32	2,403	660	541	724	375	70	32
33	4,218	438	1,598	1,180	841	109	48
34	3,955	717	1,077	1,238	754	139	28
35	4,276	881	1,163	1,269	789	134	40
36	2,802	722	593	863	490	91	42
37	966	244	230	317	132	32	11
38	747	89	281	232	100	30	15
39	508	88	142	175	85	14	3
40	540	96	186	171	58	23	6