Race Ratings


Welcome to The Midnight Sun’s Legislative Campaign Ratings Page. This site is intended to give readers a quick view of where legislative races currently stand.

Races are listed according to the incumbent seeking re-election to the seat. If there is no incumbent the race will be listed by the district number (House) or letter (Senate).

We have divided races into a Solid-Likely-Lean-Toss-up scale. Those listed in the “Solid” category are either not up for reelection this year or have no significant opposition in either the primary or general elections.

As you can see from the tables below, we have determined that incumbents up for re-election, but facing no significant opposition are representatives Chenault, Thompson, Tilton, Wilson, Kawasaki, Guttenberg, Tuck, Kito, Edgmon, Foster, Gara, Tarr, and Josephson, and Senators Steadman and Stevens. As a result, we will not be doing individual reviews of their races.

As we review all of the other legislative races in the state, they will be added to the tables.

Bear in mind, these ratings are subject to change as the election cycle develops.

State House

House race ratings

Note: Rep. Dan Ortiz (I) is not listed on the scale. When his race is reviewed we will list him as a Democrat. This reflects his decision to organize with the Democrats when caucusing.

State Senate

senate race ratings

Full Race Previews

HD 6 — Eielson/ Denali / Upper Yukon / Nenana (Dave Talerico, Ryan Smith, Jason Land, Justin Pratt)
HD 7 — Wasilla (Colleen Sullivan-Leonard)
HD 8 — Big Lake/Port Mackenzie (Mark Neuman, Mike Alexander)
HD 9 — Palmer/Valdez/Delta (Rep. Jim Colver, George Rauscher, Pam Goode)

HD 10 — Houston/Talkeetna/Willow (Rep. Wes Keller, David Eastman, Andrew Wright, Steven Menard, Christian Hartley)
HD 11 — Greater Palmer (Delena Johnson, Richard Best, Bert Verrall)
HD 13 — Eagle River/Chugiak (Dan Saddler, Myranda Walso)
HD 14 — Eagle River/Chugiak (Rep. Lora Reinbold, Crystal Kennedy)

HD 16 — Anchorage/Boniface (Rep. Ivy Spohnholz, Don Hadley, Lisa Vaught)
HD 18 — Midtown Anchorage/Spenard (Rep. Harriet Drummond vs. Mike Gordon)
HD 22 — South Anchorage/Sand Lake (Rep. Liz Vazquez, Jason Grenn, Ed Cullinane, Dustin Darden, David Nees)
HD 26 — Anchorage/Huffman/ Lower Hillside (Rep. Bob Lynn, Chris Birch)
HD 27 — East Anchorage (Lance Pruitt, John Zebutis) ***Primary Only*** 

HD 28 — Anchorage Hillside/Girdwood/Indian (Jennifer Johnston, Ross Bieling, Shirley Cote, Joan Wilson)
HD 30 — Kenai/Soldotna (Rick Koch, Gary Knopp, Keith Baxter, Kelly Wolf)
HD 31 — Homer/Kasilof/Ninilchik (Rep. Paul Seaton, Mary Wythe, John Cox)
HD 38 — Bethel/Lower Kuskokwim (Rep. Bob Herron, Zach Fansler)
HD 40 — North Slope/Barrow/Kotzebue (Rep. Ben Nageak, Dean Westlake)

Senate Seat D — Wasilla /Big Lake /Port Mackenzie (Rep. Lynn Gattis, David Wilson)
Senate Seat F — Palmer/Chugiak/Fairview (Rep. Shelley Hughes, Adam Crum, Steve St. Clair, Samantha Laudert-Rodgers, Tim Hale)
Senate Seat J — Anchorage/ Downtown/Mountain View (Tom Begich and Ed Wesley)
Senate Seat L — Anchorage/Taku/Oceanview (Rep. Craig Johnson, Jeff Landfield, Natasha Von Imhof, Forrest McDonald, Roselyn Cacy)